Turkiye: Imported bulk scrap prices rise by $7/t w-o-w amid improvement in rebar demand
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- Scrap supply tightens; market uncertainties drive caution
- China's return post-LNY could push down scrap prices
Turkish deep-sea imported bulk ferrous scrap prices rose by $7/tonne (t) w-o-w, supported by robust deal activity, which boosted seller confidence. Turkish rebar demand improved, and scrap supply tightened, pushing up import tags.
In the past seven days, around 6-7 deals were concluded for Turkiye, with three deals for HMS from the Baltic and Caribbean regions at $349-350/t, while HMS, shredded, and bonus were priced within $345-365/t CFR Turkiye.
BigMint's price assessments
- US-origin HMS (80:20) bulk scrap stood at $355/t CFR Turkiye, up $12/t w-o-w.
- Bulk HMS (80:20) from the US East Coast was at $335/t FOB, also up $12/t w-o-w.
The scrap-to-rebar spread increased w-o-w to $215-220/t, with rebar export prices at $570-575/t FOB.
Workable prices of US-/Baltic-origin HMS (80:20) were at $349-354/t CFR, with an offer at $360/t CFR. However, most deals occurred at around $350/t CFR. Prices of EU-origin HMS (80:20) were largely reported as $345/t CFR.
Recent deals
- Baltic-origin to Aegean region: HMS (80:20) at $350/t
- Baltic-origin to West Marmara region: HMS (80:20) at $349/t
- UK-origin to Aegean region: HMS (80:20) at $345/t, bonus at $365/t for 15,000 t
- French-origin to Mediterranean region: HMS (80:20) at $350/t, shredded at $370/t, bonus at $370/t
- EU-origin to Mediterranean region: HMS (80:20) at $349/t, bonus at $369/t
- EU-origin to West Marmara region: HMS (80:20) at $349/t
Market scenario
A trader stated that Chinese merchants are to resume activity after the Lunar New Year holiday, with billet offers at around $465/t CFR, while Malaysian ones could range within $475-485/t CFR. This might pressure scrap prices.
A recycler noted, "Turkish mills are likely to push European recyclers for price reductions. However, some European recyclers are struggling to secure material at prices that would make sales possible below $345/t CFR."
A major US scrap trader reported US-sourced HMS (80:20) at $355-356/t and EU-origin HMS (80:20) at $350-352/t CFR Turkiye for bulk cargoes. Tight supply and improved Turkish rebar demand pushed prices up, with rebars at $570-575/t FOB Turkiye, gaining $15-20/t w-o-w.
A market participant noted, "There was initially little activity, as everyone waited for updates on the escalating tensions between the US and China, especially after China announced retaliatory tariffs. Participants are expected to return from the Lunar New Year holidays in February."
A Turkish mill-side participant commented, "The market remains uncertain, with some participants choosing to stay out for now and waiting until next week for more clarity. However, high scrap costs are becoming unsustainable for Turkiye, as integrated mills are putting pressure on EAF-based producers."
Turkish imported scrap volume rises by 6% in CY'24
Turkiye's steelmakers imported 20.01 mnt of scrap in 2024, a 6% increase from 2023's 18.8 mnt. December saw an 11% rise y-o-y to 1.85 mnt. The US remained the top supplier. However, Turkiye's yearly rebar exports fell by 1% to 3.34 mnt.
As per BigMint's vessel line-up data, in January 2025, total ferrous scrap imports were at around 2-2.05 mnt, including the share of containerised material. The US, Netherlands, and UK remained the top suppliers in January 2025. On a y-o-y basis, ferrous scrap imports rose by 9% as compared to 1.86 mnt in January 2024.
Outlook
Recent bookings have boosted seller sentiment, pushing tradable prices higher. However, if China aggressively re-enters the market with competitive billet pricing, scrap tags could fall below $330/t CFR in the near term. Meanwhile, EUROFER's push for scrap export restrictions ahead of the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism may impact Turkiye's scrap procurement in the long term.
