Turkiye: Imported bulk scrap prices rise $8/t w-o-w on restocking impetus

• Turkish mills return strongly to replenish stocks
  
  
• US winter supply disruptions raise prices for Feb'25
  
  

Turkish deep-sea imported ferrous bulk scrap prices rose by $8/t w-o-w, supported by reported deals from the US and Europe that boosted seller confidence.

In the past seven days, around seven-eight deals were concluded for Turkiye, with four deals from the US and the rest from the EU and UK. Deal prices for HMS ranged from $340-349/t, while shredded, bonus & PNS priced between $362.5-369/t CFR Turkiye.

As of 30 January, Turkish mills booked around 30-32 bulk scrap cargoes this month, rebounding from just 20-22 vessels in December, which saw a slowdown due to holiday-related disruptions in the latter half of the month.

BigMint's price assessments

• US-origin HMS (80:20) bulk scrap was assessed at $348/t CFR Turkiye, up $8/t w-o-w.
  
  
• Bulk HMS (80:20) from the US East Coast stood at $323/t FOB, also up $5/t w-o-w.
  
  

The scrap-to-rebar spread remained range-bound w-o-w at $210-215/t, with rebar export prices standing at $555-560/t FOB.

US ferrous scrap prices were supported by supply disruptions caused by winter weather, which might lead to increased trading in February. Winter storms and freezing temperatures affected the eastern US, reaching as far south as the Gulf Coast. These conditions caused delays and disruptions in transport networks, likely slowing scrap collection deliveries to scrap yards and hindering processed scrap shipments to steelmakers.

Turkish steel producers resumed deep-sea scrap purchases at firm prices to replenish February stocks, as recyclers raised seller targets, driven by expectations of strong US domestic buying in February.

The workable price for US/Baltic-origin HMS (80:20) ranged between $340-345/t CFR. A market participant noted a strong US sell-side, with seller targets rising to $350-360/t CFR, supported by recent gains in the US domestic scrap market.

Market scenario

A US-based recycler mentioned that "HMS is not available in the US, and the docks are unable to compete with the domestic market; Turkish scrap prices will likely need to rise more than expected."

Despite weak finished steel sales and prices, Turkish mills were forced to accept firm scrap offers, with suppliers holding prices steady due to tight supply. As a result, mills resumed deep-sea scrap purchases and shifted focus to increasing steel prices.

A trader commented, "These deals were a game changer," as market sentiment shifted.

An EU-based supplier remarked, "It's clear that seller's offers have increased, and mills know they'll have to pay more to close a deal this week."

Another EU-based supplier noted, "The availability of US material is limited, but there are no supply issues in Europe." In the Benelux region, HMS collection costs were reported at EUR 290/t delivered to the docks, while indicative tradable prices for EU-origin HMS (80:20) ranged from $335-340/t CFR, and European supply could limit any short-term price increases.

A Baltic recycler commented, "The buy-side is under pressure, and the market expects prices to rise." and, "Sellers are targeting $350/t CFR, though some may still accept $345/t CFR, but most are choosing to wait and see how the situation unfolds."

Outlook

Recent bookings have boosted seller sentiment, raising tradable prices to $350-360/t CFR for US/Baltic HMS (80:20) and $340-345/t CFR for EU material. A recycler noted, "Further price movement depends on rebar sales. We will see whether buyers or sellers adjust first."