Turkiye: Imported bulk scrap prices hit 2-year low as buyers hesitate amid falling rebar tags

• Rebar prices drop $30-40/t in Nov'24
  
  
• EU and Baltic exports benefit from weaker Euro
  
  

Turkish imported ferrous scrap prices fell slightly by $2/t w-o-w to hit a two-year low level, which was last seen last during November 2022, as mills remained cautious about restocking amid bearish expectations of end-product prices.

Turkish mills hesitated, causing scrap collectors to lower prices. European and Baltic exporters benefited from a weaker Euro, while US sellers also reduced prices to cut costs. By the end of November, US-origin HMS (80:20) dropped $25/t to $338/t CFR Turkiye, down from $365-370/t in the first week.

Early in November, Turkish scrap quotes held steady as both buyers and sellers adopted a wait-and-see approach. However, as the month progressed, pressure on scrap prices intensified due to weak demand for Turkish-finished steel products.

Mills are steadily pushing for lower scrap prices amid continued declines in the rebar and flat steel markets. "Mills are cautious in their purchases and targeting lower levels as rebar prices keep dropping," a mill source noted, with buyer bids reported around $330/t CFR.

Mills lowered their bids to adjust their rebar price cuts, which fell by $30-40/t in November from $605/t in the first week to $560-565/t as of now.

Assessments

• BigMint's assessment for US-origin HMS (80:20) bulk scrap stood at $338/t CFR, down by $2/t w-o-w.
  
  
• BigMint's assessment for bulk HMS (80:20) from the US east coast stood at $313/t FOB, down by $5/t w-o-w.
  
  

The scrap-to-rebar spread remains rangebound at $226-230/t as rebar export prices stood at $563-565/t FOB.

Market scenario

In the last seven days, two deals were heard from the EU and Baltic regions at around $336.5 to $337.5/t levels on a CFR Turkiye basis.

As per market sources, December began with slow deep-sea contracts as market participants pulled back. Expectations for the month are largely negative, with limited improvement seen in Turkiye's long steel market. Scrap sellers are trying to prevent further price declines amid a seasonal slowdown and the approaching holiday period.

As per BigMint's vessel lineup reports, in November, Turkiye received 65-70 bulk scrap cargoes, totalling over 1.45-1.5 mnt in which deep-sea arrivals saw a rise of 15-20%.

Indicative tradable values for US/Baltic-origin material remain at $338-$339/t CFR, with seller offers at $340-342/t CFR and buyer bids ranging from $332-334/t CFR.

An EU scrapyard owner expressed concerns about the market bottoming out as 2025 approaches, citing pressure from cheap billet exports out of China, which have weighed heavily on prices. EU scrap deals are reportedly being concluded at $334-$338/t. With dock prices at Euro 275/t ($290/t) and limited signs of immediate recovery in CFR levels, the near-term outlook remains challenging.

Outlook: The scrap market outlook for December remains subdued, with a stalemate in pricing as mills push for reductions while sellers hold firm above $340-342/t CFR levels, hinting at a potential price floor. As per market insiders, flat steel prices are dropping sharply, with rebar expected to decline by $15-20/t in the coming days.