Turkiye: Imported bulk scrap offers drop by $2/t w-o-w due to limited activity ahead of holidays

• Mills delay scrap purchases as rebar demand weakens
  
  
• Sellers keep offers firm amid lower bids; stalemate occurs
  
  

Turkish imported ferrous scrap prices fell by $2/t w-o-w in the final week of the year, driven by reduced market activity ahead of the Christmas and New Year holidays.

Low rebar demand made Turkish mills hesitant to purchase more scrap, dampening market confidence and limiting the potential for any price recovery in the near term.

A mill-side participant noted, "Rebar demand has weakened, prompting mills to adopt a wait-and-see approach. Quite a few number of mills will remain active, those who need some to operate but majority of the mills not seeing significant demand expected for rebar or scrap during and after the holidays."

BigMint's assessments

• US-origin HMS (80:20) bulk scrap stood at $349/t CFR, down by $2/t w-o-w.
  
  
• Bulk HMS (80:20) from the US East Coast was at $323/t FOB, down by $1/t w-o-w.
  
  

The scrap-to-rebar spread remained range-bound w-o-w at $226-228/t, as rebar export prices stood at $570-575/t FOB.

Market scenario

The Turkish imported scrap market displayed cautious sentiments throughout the week, with limited activity and a widening gap between buyer and seller expectations. Mills largely stepped back from active procurement, citing weak rebar demand and aiming for lower scrap prices, while recyclers maintained firm offers despite growing selling pressure. US-origin bulk HMS (80:20) was assessed at around $349-351/t CFR, with tradable values for US/Baltic-origin material clustered close to $347-350/t CFR.

Given the low activity this week, the year is expected to close with EU-origin scrap offers below $345-346/t for Turkiye. Indicative levels for HMS (80:20) stood at $346-348/t CFR, while US offers were largely stable w-o-w, at around $350-351/t.

Turkish mills targeted lower levels, such as $340/t CFR for EU-origin scrap, leveraging a weaker euro and sluggish global scrap demand. However, sellers resisted such aggressive pricing, pointing to stable collection costs and constrained scrap availability. US recyclers held to higher targets, above $355/t CFR, citing no urgency to sell. The result was a stand-off, as buyers sought to exploit market uncertainty while sellers remained firm, especially those expecting mills to eventually need additional material.

Overall, the market was marked by a "wait-and-watch" approach, with neither side willing to concede significant ground, leaving prices slightly softer but largely stable.

Notably, during the week, only one deal was heard from the EU, at around $347-348/t CFR Turkiye.

A Turkish trader said, "With rebar sales slowing down, Turkish mills have realised they have more time to negotiate, causing sellers to become less confident. There is no urgency on the buy side, and sellers are now more eager to sell their material."

Market participants opined that a weaker euro could result in lower dollar-denominated export offers from European recyclers, but an EU-based recycler stated, "Mills think $340/t CFR and lower is possible, but these are not feasible for us."

A Turkish mill source said, "Turkiye is not in a hurry to buy material, and US recyclers are not rushing either. Both sides are expecting prices at around $350/t CFR for premium HMS (80:20) for now."

Outlook

According to market insiders, significant demand for rebar and scrap is not expected during or immediately after the holidays. A participant stated, "There is no significant sales pressure at the moment, but Turkish mills may need more material than they are indicating." It is expected that mills will need to purchase a minimum of 10-15 cargoes soon, with further market developments expected once activity resumes after the holiday period. Mixed sentiments are expected in the coming days.