Turkiye: Ferrous scrap imports surge over 20% m-o-m in Aug'24

In August 2024, Turkish ferrous scrap imports increased by 23% to 1.97 million tonnes (mnt) from 1.60 mnt in July 2024, according to customs data compiled by BigMint.

Additionally, scrap imports surged by 30% compared to 1.51 mnt recorded during the same period last year (August 2023).

The US continued to be the top exporter, followed by the Netherlands, Lithuania, and Belgium. Notably, a substantial increase was observed in Turkiye's ferrous scrap imports from the Netherlands.

In the first eight months of the year, imports increased slightly by 4% to 13.55 mnt from 13.03 mnt in January-August 2023.

During the period, rising iron ore prices and the cancellation of high-priced Chinese billet orders provided some support to the climbing scrap import volume. Buyers remained active in purchasing scrap, and a few confidential deals were concluded, which were revealed later.

As per BigMint's bulk scrap trade tracker, Turkish buyers booked around 18-20 deep-sea and 8-10 short-sea bulk cargoes for August shipment.

Key updates

• Crude steel production: Turkiye's crude steel output remained range-bound m-o-m at 3.1 mnt in August, according to the World Steel Association (WSA).
  
  
• Lira exchange rate: The Turkish lira's value edged up by 3%, with one TRY valued at 34.07 against 1 US dollar in August, compared to 33.14 in July.

  
  
  

Country-wise shipments

Imports from the US surge: Ferrous scrap imports from the US surged by 34% to 0.47 mnt in August from 0.35 mnt in July. The increase in imports was supported by additional shipments of containerised scrap from the US.

According to BigMint's vessel line-up data, bulk scrap import volumes in August were recorded at 0.36 mnt, a slight dip compared to July.

US crude steel production rose 2% from 6.93 mnt in July to 7.05 mnt in August, which shows there was better scrap generation in the US domestic market.

• Compared to August 2023's 0.34 mnt, import volumes increased significantly by 38% y-o-y.
  
  
• Imports inched down by 1% from 2.96 mnt in January-August 2023 to 2.94 mnt in January-August 2024.
  
  

Imports from the Netherlands rise: Turkish mills imported approximately 0.37 mnt of ferrous scrap from the Netherlands in August, a sharp rise of 164% from 0.14 mnt in July. As per vessel line-up data, bulk scrap import volumes from the Netherlands touched 0.21 mnt in August 2024.

On a y-o-y basis, imports increased by more than 200% compared to 0.12 mnt during the same period last year.

In the first eight months of the year, imports increased by 30% to 1.81 mnt, from 1.39 mnt in January-August 2023.

Imports from Lithuania up: Ferrous scrap imports from Lithuania were up significantly by 56% to 0.14 mnt in August from July's 0.09 mnt. Compared to August 2023's 0.04 mnt, imports rose more than 250% y-o-y.

As per vessel line-up data, bulk scrap arrivals in August from Lithuania were at 0.13 mnt. In comparison, the import volume for bulk was minimal in July.

Y-o-y, imports decreased by 30% from 1.25 mnt in January-August 2023 to 0.87 mnt in January-August 2024.

Imports from Belgium rise: Ferrous scrap import volumes from Belgium witnessed a rise of 20% to 0.12 mnt as compared to 0.1 mnt in July. Compared to August 2023's 0.17 mnt, import volumes significantly decreased by 29% y-o-y.

In the first eight months of the year, imports decreased by 30% to 0.87 mnt from 1.25 mnt in January-August 2023.

Other regions such as the UK, Romania, Denmark, Germany, France, and Finland exported a total volume of 0.42 mnt in August.

Outlook

As per BigMint's bulk vessel line-up data, around 15-18 deep-sea deals were booked for September and early-October shipments, with the volume expected to be near 1 mnt. According to market insiders, supply constraints on the seller's side are expected to push prices higher in the near term.