Turkiye: Ferrous scrap imports increase by 6% y-o-y in 10MCY'24 on rising crude steel production

• Shipments from Lithuania nearly quadruple m-o-m in Oct
  
  
• Imports from France soar m-o-m in Oct, from 13 t to 81,411 t
  
  

Turkiye's ferrous scrap import volumes witnessed a 6% rise in the first 10 months of the calendar year (10MCY'24) to 16.46 million tonnes (mnt) from 15.6 mnt in the CPLY. The increase in imports could be attributed to Turkiye's climbing crude steel output.

Imports touched 1.47 mnt in October 2024, a slight 2% increase from 1.44 mnt in September.

Key updates

• Crude steel production: Turkiye's crude steel output increased by 13% y-o-y in 10MCY'24, to 30.91 mnt compared to 27.43 mnt in 10MCY'23, according to the World Steel Association (WSA). However, in October, crude steel production decreased by 3% m-o-m to 3 mnt compared to 3.09 mnt in September.
  
  
• Lira exchange rate: The Turkish lira's value was largely stable, with a slight drop. The TRY was valued at 34.25 against 1 US dollar in October, compared to 34.16 in September.
  
  
• HMS 80:20 (bulk, US origin): The average price in October stood at $376/tonne (t) compared to $368/t in September.
  
  
• Pig iron imports: Turkiye imported approximately 1.1 mnt of pig iron in 10MCY'24, marking a 7% decrease compared to the same period last year. Russia was the largest supplier, providing around 0.72 mnt (down 13% y-o-y), followed by Kazakhstan with 0.16 mnt and Ukraine with 0.07 mnt.
  
  

However, in October, Turkiye's pig iron imports totalled around 0.11 mn t, marking a 50% m-o-m increase but a 27% y-o-y decline.

As per BigMint's bulk scrap trade tracker, Turkish buyers booked around 33-35 deep-sea and 10-12 short-sea bulk cargoes for October shipment.

Country-wise imports

US: The US remained the largest exporter of ferrous scrap to Turkiye, contributing over 24% of total imports in 10MCY'24. Imports from the US increased by 7% y-o-y to 3.87 mnt in 10MCY'24, compared to 3.63 mnt in 10MCY'23.

In October 2024 alone, there was a marginal decline m-o-m, to 461,723 t from 474,382 t in September. However, exports recorded a notable y-o-y increase of 20%, compared to 383,608 t in October 2023.

Netherlands: The second-largest exporter of ferrous scrap to Turkiye was the Netherlands, accounting for over 14% of the country's total imports in 10MCY'24. A significant 26% y-o-y increase in exports was recorded, to 2.22 mnt in 10MCY'24 compared to 1.76 mnt in 10MCY'23.

In October 2024, exports saw a 10% m-o-m decline, slipping to 195,651 t from 217,353 t in September. Meanwhile, y-o-y, exports fell substantially by 23%, compared to 252,715 t in October 2023.

UK: The UK's shipments to Turkiye totalled 1.77 mnt in 10MCY'24, reflecting a significant 53% y-o-y increase compared to 1.16 mnt in 10MCY'23.

In October 2024, exports saw an 8% increase to 164,175 t from 152,666 t in September. Meanwhile, y-o-y, exports more than doubled, compared to 55,732 t in October 2023.

Lithuania: Ferrous scrap exports from Lithuania to Turkiye totalled 0.85 mnt in 10MCY'24, marking a significant increase of 35% y-o-y from 0.63 mnt in 10MCY'23.

In October 2024, exports nearly quadrupled m-o-m, to 109,449 t from 27,950 t in September. Similarly, exports more than doubled y-o-y, compared to 50,400 t in October 2023.

France: French exports to Turkiye touched 0.5 mnt in 10MCY'24.

October 2024 saw an exponential m-o-m rise, to 81,411 t from just 13 t in September.

Outlook

In November, the imported scrap volume is expected to increase further, with market insiders indicating a bearish trend in scrap prices, which would have helped steel mills fetch better volumes at lower tags as compared to October.

Supporting this is BigMint's bulk vessel line-up data, which shows import volumes in the range of 1.48-1.5 mnt in November, indicating slightly higher material flow.