Turkiye: Ferrous scrap imports drop 27% m-o-m on declining crude steel production

Turkiye's ferrous scrap import market saw a notable 27% m-o-m decline in volumes, totaling 1.44 million tonnes (mnt) in September 2024, down from 1.97 mnt in August.

However, in the first nine months of the calendar year 2024 (9MCY'24), imports reached 14.9 mnt, marking a nominal increase of 6% y-o-y from 14.1 mnt in 9MCY'23.

The decline in Turkiye's ferrous scrap imports in September can be attributed to reduced imports from major exporting countries, coupled with a decrease in the country's crude steel production compared to the previous month. This drop in steel output resulted in lower demand for ferrous scrap, leading to a reduction in imports during the month.

Key updates

• Crude steel production: Turkiye's crude steel output decreased by 2% m-o-m, reaching 3.09 mnt in September, compared to 3.154 mnt in August, according to the World Steel Association (WSA).
  
  

However, In 9MCY'24, crude steel production increased by 14%, reaching 27.91 mnt, compared to 24.46 mnt in 9MCY'23.

• Lira exchange rate: The Turkish lira's value remains largely stable, with one TRY valued at 34.16 against 1 US dollar in September, compared to 34.07 in August.
  
  

Country-wise imports

US: The US remains the leading exporter of ferrous scrap to Turkiye, accounting for over 33% of total imports. Exports remained marginally stable m-o-m, rising slightly from 469,707 t in Aug'24 to 474,382 t in Sep'24.

However, exports rose nominally by 5% y-o-y over the first nine months, from 3.24 mnt in 9MCY'23 to 3.41 mnt in 9MCY'24.

The Netherlands: The second leading exporter of ferrous scrap to Turkiye, accounting for over 15% of Turkiye's total imports, saw a significant 41% m-o-m decline in exports, falling from 366,878 t in August 2024 to 217,3563 t in September 2024.

However, exports rose substantially by 34% y-o-y in the first nine months, increasing from 1.51 mnt in 9MCY'23 to 2.03 mnt in 9MCY'24.

Lithuania: Exports totaled 27,950 t in Sep'24, reflecting a significant of 81% m-o-m decrease from 143,470 t in August 2024.

However, exports rise by 26 % y-o-y, rising from 0.58 mnt in 9MCY'23 to 0.74 mnt t in 9MCY'24.

Belgium: Exports totaled 79,423 t in September 2024, reflecting a noticeable decrease of 32% m-o-m from 116,470 t in August 2024.

Additionally, exports also fell by 26 % y-o-y, falling from 12.72 mnt in 9MCY'23 to 9.47 mnt t in 9MCY'24.

France: There were no traceable scrap exports from France to Turkiye in September, while approximately 62,859 t of ferrous scrap were exported in August.

Other regions such as the UK, Romania, Denmark, Germany, and Finland exported a total volume of 0.64 mnt in September.

As per BigMint's bulk scrap trade tracker, Turkish buyers booked around 30-33 deep-sea and 6-8 short-sea bulk cargoes for September shipment.

Outlook:

In the near term, Turkiye's ferrous scrap import volumes are anticipated to rise, with market sources observing an that an uptick was seen in import activity in October.

Supporting which BigMint's bulk vessel line-up data shows import volumes in the range of 1.3-1.35 mnt in October, indicating a potential growth trajectory.

This increase is likely amid a recovery in demand and improvements in steel production.