Turkey: Scrap imports resume after a lull, prices unlikely to drop further

Turkey's imported scrap trades resumed after a lull during the last week after bulk cargoes were concluded throughout the month. The Russian invasion of Ukraine kept scrap buyers cautious due to the uncertain market situation. On the other hand, imported scrap prices have increased by around $100/t over the last one month and continue to remain high.

SteelMint's assessment for US-origin HMS 1&2 (80:20) prices is at $653/tonne (t) CFR Turkey, down $2/t w-o-w.

Recent deals

• In a recently concluded deal, US-origin bulk cargo was booked by a West Marmara-based steel mill. The cargo comprised HMS 1&2 (80:20) booked at $653/t, while shredded scrap was booked at $683/t and bonus at $683/t CFR.
  
  
• Prior to that, a Benelux-origin cargo of HMS (80:20) was booked at $645/t CFR by a West Marmara-based steel mill. The cargo was booked for May '22 shipment.
  
  

Market overview

• Lira gains w-o-w: The Turkish lira gained value slightly in currency trading w-o-w. The stock market in Turkey also rose, motivated by positive signs about the negotiations between Russia and Ukraine, after the Ukrainian President announced the possibility of describing the talks with Russia as positive. Turkey is hosting the talks between the two warring parties. Currently, the lira is being traded at 14.67 against the US dollar as compared to 14.84 recorded a week ago.
  
  
• Billet prices inch down: Most of the offers for local billets are now at $875-900/t exw, while last week billets was available mostly at $890-915/t exw. A few mills also raised their offer prices but those mills are focused on finished steel sales than semis.
  
  
• Russia to hike scrap export duty: Russia has approved an almost three-fold hike in the export duty on ferrous scrap, to be introduced for three months from 1 May'22, to support domestic raw material availability and control steel prices. The minimum duty on exports of ferrous metals outside the Eurasian Economic Union has been increased from EUR 100/t to EUR 290/t. Russia exported nearly 4 mnt of ferrous scrap in CY '21, with Turkey being the largest importer.
  
  

Outlook: The country is likely to secure a few more cargoes for May shipment, ahead of Ramadan month. Yet the offers are expected to remain high.