The US: Ferrous scrap export index falls marginally by $1/t w-o-w amid weak demand from key markets

• Turkiye: Weak rebar demand slows scrap purchases
  
  
• Bangladesh: LC challenges dampen scrap demand
  
  

The US ferrous scrap export index fell marginally by $1/tonne (t) w-o-w on Friday (26 December 2024). Export offers fell during the week due to weak demand in key markets and a seasonal slowdown during the Christmas and New Year holidays.

In Turkiye, mills were hesitant to purchase scrap because of low rebar demand, while in Bangladesh, LC challenges and weak steel demand made buyers cautious. In Vietnam, fluctuating billet and rebar prices led to fewer offers and lower bids, further dampening interest in US ferrous scrap.

Additionally, US domestic hot-rolled coil prices fell due to light trading, with spot market activity remaining slow and buyers primarily sticking to contracts.

This overall lack of buying activity, combined with mills' reduced offers, contributed to the decline in US export scrap prices.

FOB assessments (US East Coast, bulk)

• HMS (80:20) decreased by $1/t w-o-w to $323/t.
  
  
• Shredded fell by $1/t w-o-w to $343/t.
  
  

CFR assessments (bulk)

• HMS (80:20) was at $349/t CFR Turkiye, a dip of $2/t w-o-w.
  
  
• HMS (80:20) stood at $352/t CFR Vietnam, up $2/t w-o-w.
  
  
• HMS (80:20) was at $368/t CFR Chattogram, down by $2/t w-o-w.
  
  

Buyer side update

Turkiye: Turkish demand for US-origin imported ferrous scrap weakened, leading to a $2/t w-o-w decline in prices, largely due to reduced market activity ahead of the Christmas and New Year holidays.

US-origin HMS (80:20) bulk scrap was assessed at $349/t CFR, down by $2/t w-o-w, with tradable values for US/Baltic-origin material ranging from $347-350/t CFR. Indicative prices of HMS (80:20) from the EU were at $345-348/t CFR, while US offers remained stable at $350-351/t.

Turkish mills aimed for lower prices, such as $340/t CFR for EU-origin scrap, benefiting from the weaker euro and sluggish global scrap demand. In contrast, US recyclers held firm on higher price targets above $355/t CFR, citing no urgency to sell. This resulted in a standoff between buyers, hoping to capitalise on market uncertainty, and sellers, who remained firm, expecting mills to eventually need additional material.

Bangladesh: The Bangladesh imported scrap market remained slow this week due to ongoing LC challenges and weak finished steel demand. US-sourced HMS (80:20) bulk prices increased by $4/t w-o-w to $370/t.

A major mill based in Chattogram, which holds 400,000-500,000 t of scrap inventory, is showing less interest in securing additional volumes. Mills in both Dhaka and Chattogram continue to face LC challenges, especially for smaller vessels, while larger mills are managing with more flexible terms. This has kept overall demand for US-origin scrap subdued in the market.

Vietnam: Demand for US-origin scrap in Vietnam remained subdued last week due to fluctuating billet and rebar prices, leading to fewer offers and lower bids during the holiday season. US-origin HMS (80:20) prices rose by $2/t to $352/t, but the maximum workable prices for buyers stayed around $345-350/t CFR Vietnam, unchanged for five weeks.

Some mills opted for smaller-volume containers. Low-grade scrap from the US and South America transacted at $290-295/t CFR Vietnam, with mills unwilling to accept prices above $345/t CFR.

Outlook

The near-term outlook for the US ferrous scrap export market remains subdued due to weak demand in key markets and seasonal slowdowns during the holidays. With reduced buying activity, Turkish mills cautious amid low rebar demand, and LC challenges in Bangladesh, further price declines are possible. However, some mills may seek additional material post-holiday, potentially stabilising the market in early 2025.