Sumitomo Mine: Global nickel market may see an oversupply of 39,000 t
Sumitomo Metal Mining has come up with their global nickel market projections for 2023. The supply-demand balance for nickel is projected to experience an oversupply of 3...
Sumitomo Metal Mining has come up with their global nickel market projections for 2023. The supply-demand balance for nickel is projected to experience an oversupply of 39,000 tonne (t) in 2023 after facing a supply shortage of 44,000 tonne in 2022. The shift in the balance is expected to be driven by a recovery in demand in 2023 due to the easing of pandemic restrictions globally, according to Japan Metal Daily.
In the fiscal year 2023, the global supply of nickel is expected to reach 3,318,000 t, representing a y-o-y rise of 13.6%. In comparison, nickel consumption is projected to go up by 10.6% y-o-y. It may reach a total of 3,279,000 t.
The nickel pig iron (NPI) production estimated at 399,000 t in China, representing a y-o-y drop of 4.8%. In contrast, NPI production in Indonesia is expected to rise by 17.2% y-o-y, reaching 1,161,000 t. On the demand side, global production of stainless steel is expected to go up by 6.3% y-o-y, reaching 59,371,000 t. Production in China alone is anticipated to be 34,647,000 t, representing an increase of 8.4% y-o-y.
Yusuke Niwa, the Executive Officer (Deputy General Manager of the Metals Business Division and General Manager of the Nickel Sales and Raw Materials Department), stated "Our forecast is that NPI in Indonesia will not exceed the demand for stainless steel. We expect an oversupply turnaround, including the launch of the High Pressure Acid Leach (HPAL) project in Indonesia."
When it comes to demand trends, Niwa further added that China's recovery is not as much as anticipated during the zero-coronavirus policy shift. However, the demand's absolute amount is significant and will recover in the future.
In FY22, the global supply and demand for nickel is 2,921,000 t (up 11% y-o-y) and consumption is 2,965,000 t (up 7% y-o-y). NPI production in China was 419,000 t (down 0.2%), and 991,000 t in Indonesia (up 12%) will contribute to supply. Global production of stainless steel was 55,833,000 t (down 4.2%), and China's production was 31,975,000 t (down 2%) in terms of demand.
