SteelMint: India HRC export index largely stable, deals concluded

SteelMint's India HRC (SAE1006) export index remained largely stable this week at $720/tonne (t) FOB east coast with a couple of deals reported to Nepal and Vietnam. Also, the other overseas markets are opening up with participants resuming activities after the holidays.

Rationale: Twelve indicative prices were considered as T2 inputs. Meanwhile, towards the end of last week, a private steel major had booked 30,000 t of HRCs for exports to Vietnam for Feb'22 shipment at $750-752/t CFR. This export deal was reported as T1. The final price was an average of T1 and T2 inputs which stood at $720/t FOB. The CFR prices were converted to FOB equivalent by deducting freight costs from the buyer/seller.

Competitive offers make Indian HRCs lucrative for Vietnam:
Chinese mills kept their offers largely stable over the past month while Indian offers fell significantly in this period. Where, in early-Dec'21, offers from China and India stood around $810/t CFR and $820 CFR respectively, Indian offers have dropped to $750-755/t CFR while those of China are at $790/t CFR as of the current week.

• Japanese offers dropped by $15/t w-o-w to $800/t CFR.
  
  
• Last heard offers from Russia were at $750/t CFR.
  
  
• Bids from Vietnam continue to hover at around $740/t CFR.
  
  

Fall in price indications of Middle East, Turkey:
In the Middle East region, last heard offers for the UAE market were at $765/t CFR whereas indications this week were heard at around $755-760/t CFR from a few sources.

Meanwhile, in Turkey, few indications were heard at $770/t CFR this week, down by $5/t w-o-w.

Bookings reported to Nepal:
An Indian steel major was heard to have booked 30,000 t of HRCs for exports to Nepal for mid-Feb'22 shipment. The deal was concluded at $750-755/t CFR Raxaul border, translating to $730-735/t ex-plant.

Total imports of HRC/plates into Nepal accounted for 367,939 t in CY'21. Out of this, India held the lions' share of 362,725 t followed by China at 5,212 t.

Outlook: The market is awaiting the comeback of European buyers. As per SteelMint, India's steel export volumes are estimated to rise by around 16% to almost 20 million tonnes (mn t) in CY'21 compared to 17.50 mn t in CY'20. Prices seem to have largely stabilised and there seems less chances of a steep price correction given the hike in Chinese futures. SHFE HRC May'22 contract closed today at RMB 4,719/t as against RMB 4,499/t a week back.