SteelMint: India HRC export index falls marginally on lower Chinese prices

"The steel market is uncertain due to the crisis in the Red Sea" informed an ME-based source. However, mills have kept offers for Europe (EU) on a higher side following uptrend in domestic prices.

Rationale: No confirmed deal (T1) was reported in this publishing window. Eight indicative prices were considered as T2 inputs out of Fifteen inputs received. The final price was an average of T1 and T2 inputs, which stood at $600/t FOB. CFR prices were converted to FOB by deducting freight costs from the buyer or seller.

Market updates:

1. HRC export offers to ME range-bound w-o-w: Indian steel mills' offers to the Middle East (ME) was range-bound w-o-w at approximately $635-640/t CFR. The ME steel market is struggling to regain momentum, with buyers still hesitant and foreign suppliers pushing for higher prices. This has led to a significant slowdown in buying activity. "The Steel market is uncertain due to the crisis in the Red Sea" informed an ME-based source. Furthermore, Chinese HRC export offers to the ME saw an uptrend this week, hovering at $620-625/t CFR UAE, up from $615-620/t CFR UAE last week.

2. Indian HRC price indications to Vietnam fall w-o-w: Indian HRC export price indications to Vietnam declined by approximately $15-20/t w-o-w, with current offers at $615-620/t CFR Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam. Mills adjusted their offers to remain competitive with Chinese offers. Notably, Indian mills resumed HRC export offers to Vietnam, which had been suspended since July 2023. Chinese HRC (SAE1006) offers were reported at $615-620/t CFR.

Additionally, Formosa Ha Tinh, a major Vietnamese steel producer, increased HRC prices by $27-35/t m-o-m for end-March to early-April 2024 shipments, depending on the booked quantity. Rising raw material costs, intensified competition, and increased offers for Chinese imported HRC contributed to the company's decision to raise prices.

3. Indian HRC export offers to EU rise w-o-w: Indian HRC exports to Europe (S275, 3mm) increased by $25/t w-o-w, with current offers at $720-725/t CFR Antwerp ($670-675/t FOB east-coast India). European domestic prices continue to remain elevated, primarily due to higher production costs. Additionally, a leading mill in Europe raised its offer for hot-rolled coil (HRC) by EUR 50/t ($55/t) due to limited import options and low domestic supply. The new offer stands at EUR 800/t ($871/t) for HRC to northwest European buyers.

Buyers in the region are turning their attention to price-competitive imports, although cautiousness prevails as safeguard quotas for the first quarter have been exhausted from other countries, resulting in lower volumes for import bookings.

Outlook:

The global steel market sentiments are expected to remain mixed. Indian export prices have decreased due to competition from China and sluggish buying in the Middle East amid Red Sea issues. Conversely, Vietnam's domestic price hike and higher European offers indicate the possibility of demand recovery.