South Asia: Imported ferrous scrap offers remain rangebound; Turkish prices rebound

• India's steel demand weakens despite China recovery
  
  
• Turkiye sees price rise, rebound hope for suppliers
  
  

The South Asian scrap market remains subdued, with largely stable and range-bound workable levels. India is facing weak demand despite China's policy loosening. Pakistan struggles with low buying interest as mills operate at reduced capacity. Bangladesh, with liquidity challenges and a continued dull construction sector followed by a weaker currency, remains sidelined in containerised scrap inquiries. In Turkiye, prices rose after a US-origin deal, fuelled by optimism for increased demand from potential reconstruction efforts in Syria.

Overview

India: The Indian imported scrap market remains subdued due to weak demand, despite moderate policy loosening in China. China's improving consumption has not significantly impacted India, and safeguard duty negotiations are still ongoing. Even with a potential 25% duty, any sentiment boost is expected to be short-lived. Scrap prices are under pressure, with HMS at $360-365/t and shredded at $375-380/t.

A mill source noted, "The domestic outlook has softened due to the weakened currency exchange rate, impacting purchasing power."

However, a Gujarat-based scrap importer mentioned, "The near-term outlook looks positive with 10 new road projects announced, which should gradually boost rebar demand."

Pakistan: Pakistani buyers have remained cautious due to a slowdown in the domestic steel market and limited buying interest.

As per a Karachi-based steel mill, the majority of the mills are operating at just 40% capacity, and sales are sluggish, primarily because of a lack of ongoing projects and construction activities, leading to fewer buyers. Many mills have shut down, and others are considering closures due to heavy losses, as they are unable to cover their fixed expenses. Shredded scrap prices are currently between $382-385/t.

Bangladesh: Bangladeshi buyers remained inactive in containerised scrap market as steel mills faced liquidity challenges driven by instability in the US dollar and BDT exchange rate and a slowdown in domestic steel sales.

In the recent Kanto scrap export tender, a Bangladeshi mill reportedly heard booked the 15,000 t H2 scrap shipment at JPY 42,739/t FAS levels, which translates to $350-360/t CFR Chattogram basis.

Workable bulk levels for H2 from Japan are $350/t, while US HMS is priced at $360/t. Although the recent Turkish deal has kept prices higher by $10/t d-o-d, both Japan and Western countries are still facing pressure

Turkiye: Turkish imported scrap prices rose after a fresh US-origin deal, with HMS (80:20) at $345/t CFR, up by $10/t. Seller resistance to further price reductions fueled optimism that prices may have hit a floor. US material tradable values were $340/t CFR, with offers higher at $347/t for HMS (80:20) and $365.5/t for shredded. EU-origin offers were at $338/t CFR for HMS (80:20).

Interest in Turkish rebar grew on expectations of Syrian reconstruction, though sellers remain cautious due to challenges in sourcing scrap at viable prices, which may support prices in the coming weeks.

Price assessments

India: UK-origin shredded indicatives were assessed at $380/t CFR Nhava Sheva, dstable d-o-d.

Pakistan: UK-origin shredded indicatives edged up by $2/t d-o-d to $383/t CFR Qasim.

Bangladesh: UK-origin shredded was assessed at $384/t CFR Chattogram, stable d-o-d.

Turkiye: US-origin HMS (80:20) bulk edged up by $10/t d-o-d to $345/t CFR Turkiye.