South Africa: Non-coking coal exports up 21% m-o-m in Oct'24

• Exports to South Korea jump sharply
  
  
• Pak volumes rise 76% amid recovery
  
  

South African non-coking (thermal) coal export shipments in October 2024 totalled 6.23 million tonnes (mnt), reflecting a 21% increase from 5.14 mnt in September 2024. Y-o-y, exports were up 47%, compared to 4.23 mnt in October 2023.

India remains top importer, with steady growth

India imported 2.59 mnt in October 2024, up 4% from 2.49 mnt in September. However, y-o-y, India's imports were marginally lower, dropping by 7% compared to 2.43 mnt in October 2023.

Pakistan shows signs of recovery

Exports to Pakistan rose 76% to 0.33 mnt in October 2024 from 0.19 mnt in September. Y-o-y, this marked a significant growth from 0.19 mnt in October 2023.

South Korea sees strong demand

Shipments to South Korea saw a major increase, jumping from 0.16 mnt in September to 0.71 mnt in October 2024. Compared to October 2023's absence of data, this reflects robust new demand.

South African coal prices remain stable at Indian ports m-o-m

Portside prices of South African thermal coal remained stable m-o-m. RB2 (5500 GAR) was assessed at INR 9,500/t, and RB3 (4800 GAR) at INR 7,600/t, both ex-Gangavaram. Despite the stability in prices, transaction volumes were limited as market participants remained cautious ahead of the festive holidays and unclear price signals, resulting in fewer large deals.

Outlook

South African thermal coal prices may remain volatile in the coming weeks as market participants anticipate better demand post-monsoon and festivities in India.