South Africa: Non-coking coal exports hold steady in Sep'24

• India emerges top buyer
  
  
• Exports to Pak plunge 60%
  
  

South African non-coking (thermal) coal export shipments in September 2024 were at 5.14 million tonnes (mnt) compared to 5.11 mnt in August 2024, reflecting a 1% increase m-o-m. However, exports were up 6% y-o-y from 4.85 mnt in September 2023.

Exports to India rise by 17% m-o-m

India was the largest buyer of South African coal, importing 2.25 mnt in September 2024, a 17% increase compared to 1.92 mnt in August. Y-o-y, India's imports were 18% lower, as the country imported 2.73 mnt in September 2023.

Exports to Pakistan plummet m-o-m

Coal exports to Pakistan dropped sharply by 60% to 0.19 mnt in September 2024, from 0.46 mnt in August. However, y-o-y, there was a slight increase compared to 0.17 mnt in September 2023.

The Netherlands sees significant drop y-o-y

Shipments to the Netherlands in September 2024 were 0.16 mnt, a 27% decrease from 0.22 mnt in August. However, they were down 100% y-o-y against 0.08 mnt in September 2023.

South African coal prices edge up at Indian ports

Portside prices of South African thermal coal saw a slight increase this week. RB2 (5500 GAR) was assessed at INR 9,500/t, and RB3 (4800 GAR) at INR 7,650/t, both ex-Gangavaram. The price rise aligns with an uptrend in the domestic steel market and a hike in global offers.

Outlook

South African coal prices are expected to be volatile in October, as the Chinese market has improved following the recent stimulus package and other relaxations in the bank rates and real estate sector. Moreover, the Indian steel market is also looking positive for the last quarter of this calendar year.