South Africa non-coking coal export shipments drop 27% m-o-m in Jul'24

• Shipments to India halve, hit one-year low
  
  
• Prices under pressure amid limited trade
  
  

South African non-coking (thermal) coal export shipments in July 2024 were at 3.64 million tonnes (mnt) compared to 4.96 mnt recorded in June, down 27% m-o-m. On a y-o-y basis, exports dropped 20% in July 2024 against 4.51 mnt in July 2023.

Exports to India dip to one-year low

India was the largest buyer of South African coal, at 1.54 mnt, in July 2024 but this was a steep 54% m-o-m drop from 3.33 mnt in June 2024. Volumes hit a one-year low, as per data maintained with BigMint. because of waning demand for finished steel from tier-2 mills which use coal in steel-making and are dependent on sponge iron as a raw material. Sponge demand was also sluggish because of dull finished steel demand.

Vietnam second-largest importer

Vietnam remained the second-largest importer at 0.31 mnt in July 2024. But volumes decreased m-o-m by 60% from 0.76 mnt in June 2024.

Exports to Europe stable

Shipments to the Netherlands were largely stable m-o-m at 0.07 mnt in both June and July. However, exports dropped by 46% y-o-y to 0.07 mnt in July 2024 against 0.13 mnt in July 2023.

Prices drop m-o-m: Indexed port-side ex-Gangavaram prices of RB3 (4800 NAR) from South Africa dropped 5% to INR 7,940/t in July 2024 from INR 8,350/t in June 2024. This same grade of thermal coal, CNF Gangavaram, however, fell a sharper 7% m-o-m to $90/t in July 2024 (from $97/t in June). Prices of thermal coal remained subdued.

Outlook

Indian industrial demand remained weak due to persistent rains in several regions, which caused construction projects to grind to a halt. This is likely to keep inquiries from India limited from South Africa in the ongoing month.