Pakistan: Imported Scrap Market Silent on Sharp Currency Depreciation; Steel Prices to Surge

Today Pakistani Rupee (PKR) depreciated again by almost 7-8%, hitting record low of 137-138 levels against USD which was at around 124-125 a day earlier as per forex.

In recent conversations with market participants, SteelMint learned that today Pakistan's currency has depreciated further by around 7-8%. Pakistani Rupee devaluation by the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) is done in order to secure a bailout package from the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

Today Pakistan's interbank rate rested at PKR 124 as the market opened against USD but rose sharply hitting record high at PKR 138 and then dipped slightly to PKR 133 now. Since Dec'17 PKR depreciated 27-28% which was trading at 105-106 levels then.

Imported scrap market observed limited trades at stable prices - Before currency devaluation news was heard, few deals were confirmed for containerized scrap in the market at almost stable prices in Pakistan.

In recent deals heard, Containerized Shredded 211 from Europe and UK booked at USD 355-358/MT, CFR Qasim. However, few suppliers remain quoting Shredded to higher side on firm sentiments in the global markets with price expectations still in the range of USD 358-362/MT, CFR Qasim.

HMS 1 scrap from Dubai traded at USD 355/MT, CFR Qasim and South African HMS sold in the range of USD 347-350/MT, CFR. Deals for South American HMS 1 heard in the range of USD 345-347/MT, CFR Qasim.

"Scrap importers may slow down slightly in order to observe the impact of currency devaluation for next couple of days however, they would come back into the market shortly as very limited stocks are available in hands and local market spots shortage of scrap. Domestic finish steel prices are likely to move up immediately on recent currency depreciation" - shared a source.

Local finish steel prices likely to surge by PKR 5000-6000/MT - As an impact of sharp currency devaluation local billet, rebar and domestic scrap prices in Pakistan are likely to shoot up considerably. Local market waits for more clarity as lot of rumors are floating in the market on settling of the currency at new levels. Sellers have moved under pressure to increase rates dramatically and it is expected that market may improve back with local prices to climb by upto PKR 5000-6000/MT in upcoming days.

According to sources before currency depreciation, local prices were stable on W-o-W basis. Average prices for local billet (Bala) were at around PKR 76,500-77,500/MT. Similarly for grade 60 CC billet prices were at PKR 82,500-83,500/MT, ex-plant. Domestic scrap (equivalent to Shredded) prices increased PKR 500-1000/MT W-o-W to PKR 55,000-56,000/MT, ex-plant levels.

Major steelmakers in Karachi observe rebar prices little higher side than other regions of the country. Commercial rebar assessed at PKR 96,000-97,000/MT, ex-works (up PKR 1000-2000/MT W-o-W) while G-60 rebar prices heard at PKR 100,000-101,000/MT, ex-works in Karachi inclusive of taxes.

Rebar prices in Punjab region were assessed at PKR 96,000-97,000/MT, ex-works and at PKR 99,000-100,000/MT levels in Sindh region. All these prices are inclusive of taxes.

End users & traders are expected to actively book material in anticipation of further price hike. Few participants have turned active for massive restocking as PKR may depreciate further.

Ship breaking market observed VLCC sales at high prices - Ship cutting market at Gadani observed firming of local ship plate prices to PKR 77,000/MT levels, up PKR 1000/MT W-o-W last week. Buyers backed into the market with 3 VLCC sold at high prices amid volatility in Indian market and Bangladesh continues to suffer from L/C issues. The country seemed as the top performing market in Indian subcontinental however recent currency depreciation may put it under pressure again. Gadani ship breaking market witnessed a sale of tanker containing 16,894 LDT at price of USD 455/LT LDT last week.