Near-term outlook on China's steel products

• HRC prices may rise amid higher downstream consumption
  
  
• Low output, stable demand likely to keep longs mildly volatile
  
  

Mysteel: Below is the brief near-term outlook for five key steel products Mysteel shares on a weekly basis, drawing upon the results of related surveys and communication with Chinese market participants.

Rebar & wire rod: Prices of these two long steel products are projected to mildly fluctuate over 11-15 November, with production declining further, while demand from building contractors may stay largely stable. Meanwhile, the impact of macroeconomic policies on market trends will subside moderately.

Weekly rebar output among the 137 steel mills under Mysteel's tracking totalled 2.34 million tonnes (mnt) over 31 October-6 November, hitting a one-month low after falling for two straight weeks.

Hot-rolled coil: Prices will likely continue to head north in the week ending 15 November, mainly propped up by the recovery in flat steel consumption from downstream users.

Hot-rolled coil (HRC) stocks held by traders in the 33 Chinese cities Mysteel monitors nationwide continued their steady fall since mid-September, down by another 2.3% or 59,900 tonnes (t) w-o-w to 2.54 mnt as of 7 November.

Cold-rolled coil: Prices may appear largely stable through 15 November. The total CRC output among the 29 mills Mysteel follows is expected to hover around 830,000 t this week, while actual demand from end-users may remain largely unchanged.

Medium plate: Prices are expected to be narrowly range-bound over 11-15 November. A source in northern China predicts that local mills' output of medium plates will rise modestly this week, though end-users may remain cautious about procurement.

Sections: Sections' prices may be volatile at low levels this week. Output may be limited due to steelmakers' squeezed margins and muted demand, as work on construction sites will be restricted by falling temperatures across many parts of the country.

Note: This article has been written in accordance with a content exchange agreement between Mysteel Global and BigMint.