Near-term outlook on China's steel products

• Longs tags may narrowly fluctuate
  
  
• HRC prices to remain range-bound
  
  

Mysteel Global: Below is the brief near-term outlook for five key steel products Mysteel shares on a weekly basis, drawing upon the results of related surveys and communication with Chinese market participants.

Rebar & wire rod: Prices of these two long steel products will likely fluctuate in a narrow range over 30 December 2024-3 January 2025. Demand for steel longs may shrink further, but their output will also fall slightly as some electric-arc-furnace mills plan to suspend operations gradually after China's New Year's Day on Wednesday. Inventories of the two items will keep hovering at low levels.

Hot-rolled coil (HRC): Prices are expected to remain range-bound in the week through 3 January, as both production and demand will remain weak. A South China-based source predicts that spot prices of this flat steel will stay largely stable in the local market, where the arrivals of HRC supplies are limited.

HRC inventories at traders' warehouses in 33 cities Mysteel tracks nationwide thinned by 1.3% or 29,000 tonnes (t) w-o-w to 2.27 million tonnes (mnt) as of 26 December.

Cold-rolled coil (CRC): Prices may be slightly volatile in the week ending 3 January. Output may stay around 850,000 t this week, while demand may fall with end-users gradually completing their orders. Meanwhile, traders have opted to keep their CRC stocks at a low level.

Medium plate: Prices may fluctuate marginally during 30 December 2024-3 January 2025 due to weak supply-demand fundamentals. Some traders even have shortages of some specifications, according to a source in South China's Guangdong.

Stocks of medium plates held by traders in 31 Chinese cities Mysteel monitors declined by 23,400 t w-o-w to 1.11 mnt by 26 December.

Sections: Steel section prices may soften slightly this week. On the one hand, output may stay largely unchanged from the previous week, as integrated mills have no plans to scale back production in the short term. On the other hand, spot trading may decrease, as the Chinese New Year holiday (starting 28 January) is just one month away, and traders are busy with payment collection.

Note: This article has been written in accordance with a content exchange agreement between Mysteel Global and BigMint.