MRAI's conference highlights from the "Non-Ferrous metals demand and outlook" session

Several important topics were discussed in the Material Recycling Association of India's (MRAI) Business Conference, held in Kolkata in late January, with a major focus on non-ferrous metals demand and outlook, trade barriers, and the circular economy, followed by challenges and opportunities in the base metal industry.

Many eminent speakers and panelists discussed this during the 11th MRAI conference during 24-25 January, 2024. Highlights:

Sumit Jhunjunwala brought historical resonance, reminding us that copper was the first metal embraced by human civilisation. Shifting the focus to the present, he highlighted that aluminium is the most abundant metal in the Earth's crust, higher than iron. The impact of the 2015 Paris Environment Act on policy development resonated with a prediction that demand for nonferrous metals would escalate, possibly surpassing gas and oil. Strong government push for infrastructure-led growth. Primary aluminium capacity addition by Balco, Vedanta, and Nalco by FY2027 and scrap imports likely to meet aluminium demand. He further added that the anticipated increase in renewable energy (RE) capacity and the EV transition were identified as key drivers.

PK Banerjee, Executive Director, SIAM circled back to the automotive industry, emphasizing circularity in the automobile sector, especially in End-of-Life Vehicles (ELV). Currently, in a linear economy, major value creation occurs by producing and selling products, while circularity creates and expands the value of the process through a focus on reduce, reuse, and recycle. A circular economy generates higher value and is more environmentally friendly when compared to a linear economy. Vehicle scrapping will reduce scrap imports of steel and aluminum.

In the stainless steel sector, Hitesh Agarwal of India-based Jindal Stainless pointed to a forecast that by 2025 to 2030, another 1.5-2.0 mnt is expected to be commissioned to meet the rising demand for stainless. Capacity utilisation is expected to touch 75% by FY30.

On the production capacity side, by 2030, stainless steel might rise to 9.3-9.5 mnt with production around 6.9-7.1 mnt levels, and by 2047 to 20 mnt or more, Agarwal added.

On the supply side, he expressed concern about the "rise of scrap nationalism" that could make overseas scrap more difficult for India's mills to obtain. Agreeing with that notion was Ritesh Maheshwari, a director with MRAI, who called protectionist measures to keep scrap from being shipped across borders "a threat to our supply chains."

An additional challenge for stainless scrap traders this decade has been volatile pricing tied to the price of primary nickel.

Inefficient collection and segregation of non-ferrous scrap leads to over-reliance on scrap imports. A large, unorganized sector leads to inefficiencies, and environmental concerns are creating challenges for the non-ferrous industry.

With challenges, there are many opportunities backed up by the non-ferrous industry, increasing need for metals due to industrial growth, offering a market for recycled materials. Extended Producer's Responsibility (EPR) regime for ELVs will indirectly create an organized market for recycling non-ferrous metals and supply the scrap to the manufacturers.