LME base metal prices show positive trends, copper stocks up by 4%

Base metal prices on the London Metal Exchange (LME) mostly exhibited positive trends, with aluminium leading the gains with a 2.33% increase. However, copper prices declined by 0.52%. Despite these gains, metal stocks at LME-registered warehouses saw an overall decline, with copper being the only exception.

LME nickel futures hit a record high, closing at $17,035/t, up $369/t. Prices rose 2.6% this month due to a weaker US dollar, anticipated Fed rate cuts, and China's new energy vehicle subsidies.

Copper prices on the COMEX market remained stable, reaching $9,240/t compared to the previous close.

In India's non-ferrous markets, BigMint assessed domestic copper armature scrap at INR 739,000/t ex-Delhi. Meanwhile, aluminium tense scrap prices remained stable, with ex-Delhi NCR prices at INR 175,000/t and ex-Chennai prices at INR 176,000/t. Meanwhile, imported aluminium scrap prices in India moved up w-o-w amid the rebound in LME prices. Prices of all grades were up by up to $70/t this week amidst resumed purchase enquiries after a long holiday week.

Japan's exports increased by 10.3% y-o-y in July, falling short of the forecasted 11.4%. This growth occurred despite ongoing declines in shipment volumes. Imports rose by 16.6%, which led to a larger-than-expected trade deficit. Although the weaker yen has bolstered the value of exports, Japan's recovery faces challenges from underlying global demand issues and a sluggish Chinese economy. These factors also complicated the outlook for the Bank of Japan's monetary policy.

In June, China's copper exports surged to 158,000 t, exceeding total annual volumes since 2019. In H1 2024, refined copper production rose 6.5% to 5.9 mnt, creating a domestic surplus. This overproduction, combined with weak local demand and favorable international arbitrage, spurred increased exports and higher copper imports, fueling the surplus.

Kazakhstan aims to boost copper output from 450,000-750,000 t by 2029 and increase aluminium processing from 51,000-72,000 t by 2024. The plan includes a new copper smelter and expanding steel production to 10 mnt.

Oil prices have declined due to rising U.S. crude inventories, which suggest potential oversupply, and easing tensions in the Middle East that have alleviated concerns about supply disruptions. Weak global demand and lower refinery margins have also contributed to the drop.

Brent crude oil futures have remained relatively stable at $77.20/barrel, while WTI crude oil futures have fallen slightly by 0.03% to $73.15/barrel.

Natural gas prices were recorded at $2.20/MMBtu, up by 0.14%.

The dollar index, which measures the value of the greenback against a basket of six major currencies, hovered at 101.332, up by 0.03%.

The Indian rupee was recorded at INR 83.90 against the dollar compared from the previous close.