Japan's nickel-based stainless steel imports fall y-o-y amid low demand and stocks adjustments

In the nickel-based stainless steel cold-rolled sheets market, the influence of Chinese and Taiwanese suppliers is on the rise, with a noticeable impact on Japan's import dynamics. In the calendar year 2023, the import volume of stainless cold-rolled steel sheets in Japan experienced a y-o-y decline of 12%, reaching 160,000 t. Within this, nickel-based steel grades saw a 14% decrease, totalling approximately 133,000 t.

Despite this decline, these materials seem to have gained market share domestically, surpassing the previous year's levels. This shift is attributed to weak domestic demand and ongoing inventory adjustments until autumn, leading to a 19% decrease in domestic apparent consumption, which amounted to around 572,000 t.

Breaking down the import figures for fiscal year 2023, China experienced an 8% y-o-y decline to 56,000 t, Taiwan saw a 17% decrease to 46,000 t, and South Korea faced an 8% decline to 50,000 t. The nickel-based steel grades within these imports also witnessed reductions, with China down 14% to 46,000 t, Taiwan down 16% to 44,000 t, and South Korea down 10% to 36,000 t.

Notably, the dominance of Korean lumber, which accounted for over 70% of the nickel-based timber ratio until the first half of fiscal year 2018, has diminished, falling below 30% for the second consecutive year as Chinese and Taiwanese lumber gain prominence.

Despite the overall decline in nickel-based cold imports, the penetration rate seems to have increased. Domestic manufacturers adjusted supply-demand dynamics in response to declining local demand and inventory adjustments.

Analyzing production statistics and trade data, the estimated ratio of imported materials to apparent consumption in Japan has steadily risen from 18% in 2020 to 23% in 2023. The store sales field of SUS304 cold and thin (2B material) particularly stands out, with a market price difference of approximately JPY 100,000/t compared to domestic materials. This trend reflects a significant shift in the dynamics of the Japanese stainless steel market.

Note: This article has been published in accordance with an article exchange agreement between Japan Metal Daily and BigMint.