Japan's FY21 steel output may range from 85-90 mn t - JISF

Japan's crude steel output in the fiscal 2021 (April 2021-March 2022) may reach 85-90 million tonnes, according to the latest forecast shared by the Japan Iron & Steel Federation (JISF) on December 17, which is up from the FY20's projected 81-82 million tonnes, but still below the FY19 level.

In FY19, Japan produced 98.43 million tonnes of crude steel, and latest forecast means that the country's crude steel output will stay below 100 million tonnes for the third consecutive year, Mysteel Global noted.

"For FY21, Japan's steel industry condition will be like the cloudy weather, though we may see some sunshine after the downpour in the first half of 20 and light rain in the second half," commented Eiji Hashimoto, chairman of JISF, and president of Nippon Steel, Japan's largest integrated mill.

In FY21, Japan's domestic steel demand from civil engineering will be firm with the government's National resilience projects, while that from the building construction will hover, and steel consumption from the manufacturing industry especially from the auto sector and machinery may incline with more investments from the privately-owned companies in the latter when their financial situation improves, JISF stated in the release.

Steel demand from the overseas market may increase too with the recovery in the global economy in FY21, it added.

A Tokyo-based steel trader agreed on JISF's forecast. "We feel that Japan's steel industry has got out of the worst time, but some uncertainties still loiter and need to be watched closely," he shared.

The confirmed new COVID-19 cases are still growing rapidly in Japan and its impact on the Japanese economy, thus, is still unknown, and trade friction between China and U.S. has yet been resolved, which "will undermine Japan's steel demand recovery not only in FY20 but in FY21 too," he added, emphasizing that the trade friction had already affected Japan's steel sales and output in FY19.

As of December 17, Japan reported 3,211 new COVID-19 cases, or a daily new high since the start of the daily update on January 16, among which 822 were in Tokyo, also a record high, and the Tokyo Metropolitan government raised its health care alert system to its highest level for the first time since January.

Japan's crude steel output over FY2016-2021

Source: JISF

For Japan, its crude steel output hit the record of 121.52 million tonnes in FY2007 while the production dived to 96.5 million tonnes in FY2009, or a new low in the 21st century, Mysteel Global notes.

Written by Yoko Manabe, yoko.manabe@mysteel.com

This article has been published under an article exchange agreement between Mysteel Global and SteelMint.