Japan: JISF forecasts stagnant steel consumption in FY'24

Japan Iron and Steel Federation's (JISF) FY'24 forecast expects total steel consumption to stay flat at 52.55 million tonnes (mnt) compared to FY'23. The combined use of ordinary and special steel is forecast to decline by 0.3% compared to 2023. In addition, both ordinary and special steel consumption are projected to stagnate in FY'24, marking a slight downward trend compared to initial forecasts.

Following a 1% y-o-y decline in FY'23 due to automotive sector sluggishness, domestic steel demand is expected to remain flat in FY'24. The sluggish automobile sector, impacted by supply chain disruptions in the first half of FY'23, contributed to the previous year's decline.

While overall domestic steel consumption in FY'24 is expected to reach 52.55 mnt, the composition is shifting slightly. Ordinary steel, which accounts for the majority, is forecast to decline modestly by 0.4% y-o-y compared to FY'23, while specialty steel is predicted to see a marginal rise of 0.1% y-o-y.

Steel consumption in different sectors shows mixed trends for 2024. While manufacturing holds steady with a projected 0.1% y-o-y increase over FY'23, reaching 24.2 mnt, construction expects a slight dip of 1.1% y-o-y to 16.58 mnt.

Special steel production surged slightly above forecasts to reach 11.77 mnt in FY'23. This rise, fuelled by recovering auto demand, bodes well for continued resilience throughout the year.

The outlook for Japan's steel industry in FY'24 is mixed, with flat growth expected. While challenges remain, there are also opportunities for growth in certain segments. The performance of the automotive sector and the global economy will be key factors to watch in the coming year.

Note: This article has been written in accordance with an article exchange agreement between Japan Metal Daily and BigMint.