Japan: Ferrous scrap exports fall 5% m-o-m in July'24

In July 2024, Japan's ferrous scrap export market experienced a nominal drop in terms of volume which fell by 5% m-o-m. The volume decreased from 0.58 million tonnes (mnt) in June to 0.55 mnt in July, as reported by BigMint.

Despite this m-o-m decline, Japan's scrap exports showed a slight uptick of 2% y-o-y, rising from 0.54 mnt in July 2023.

In the first seven months of the year, the trend reveals that the cumulative exports for the period from January to July 2024 totaled around 3.87 mnt. It represents a 7% decline compared to the 4.15 mnt exported during the same months in 2023.

Japanese H2 scrap export offers increased by JPY 950/t ($6/t) FOB m-o-m, reaching JPY 50,975/t ($347/t) FOB in July, down from JPY 50,025/t ($341/t) FOB in the June.

The weak construction sector in scrap-importing countries led to sluggish long-product sales, reducing demand for raw materials.

Country-wise exports break-down

Vietnam: Vietnam led the import rankings with 0.23 mnt, marking a 4% m-o-m decrease from June's 0.24 mnt, On a y-o-y basis Japan's export to Vietnam rose by 130% in July 2024 compared to 0.10 mnt t in July 2023.

During the first seven months of the current calendar year (7MCY'24), scrap exports to Vietnam aggregated to around 1.48 mnt - marking a sharp increase of 72% y-o-y compared to 0.86 mnt seen in the same months of 2023.

As per BigMint's analysis, despite an increase in crude steel production, Vietnam's ferrous scrap imports from Japan have declined. Vietnamese buyers are increasingly sourcing scrap from alternatives like Hong Kong (for quick shipment time) and Canada, leading to a slight reduction in Japan's share of Vietnam's ferrous scrap imports.

South Korea: South Korean imports followed closely, reaching 0.11 mnt, a substantial 15% m-o-m fall from June's 0.13 mnt, On a y-o-y basis Japan's exports fell by 56% in July 2024 compared to 0.25 mnt in July 2023.

According to market insiders, weak construction activity and a preference for local scrap over imports contributed to this decline.

During 7MCY'24, scrap exports to South Korea aggregated to around 0.9 mnt - marking a sharp decrease of 48% y-o-y compared to 1.72 mnt seen in the same months of 2023.

Bangladesh: Bangladesh emerged as the third-largest importer with 0.07 mnt of ferrous scrap in July, despite a 13% m-o-m decline from 0.08 mnt in June. However, the country saw a significant 250% y-o-y increase from 0.02 mnt in July 2023. The market remained largely bearish in July, with internal political disturbances indirectly impacting scrap import volumes.

During 7MCY'24, scrap exports to Bangladesh aggregated to around 0.28 mnt - marking a sharp increase of 27% y-o-y compared to 0.22 mnt seen in the same months of 2023.

Taiwan: Taiwan's ferrous scrap imports from Japan stood at 0.03 mnt, a 25% m-o-m decrease from June's 0.04 mnt, and a 67% y-o-y fell from 0.09 t in July 2023.

Market participants informed that Taiwanese mills increasingly favoured competitively priced containerised scrap from the US.

During 7MCY'24, scrap exports to Taiwan aggregated to around 0.37 mnt - marking a sharp decrease of 34% y-o-y compared to 0.56 mnt seen in the same months of 2023.

In other markets, lower scrap import volumes from Taiwan and the Philippines contributed to the overall decline in total imports.