Japan: Copper wire demand to drop 13,000 t in FY23

On 22 March, the Japan Cable and Cable Manufacturers' Association adjusted their projection for copper and cable demand in FY23. They decreased it by 13,000 t compared to their initial estimate in March, bringing it down to 632,000 t. Not only did they reduce the export forecast, but also lowered their expectations for construction, electronic sales, and electrical machinery from initial predictions. This is anticipated to be the lowest level of demand since 1974.

The production of telecommunications cables remained steady at 8,000 t, in line with the initial projection, marking a 3.9% increase from the previous year. This stability is attributed to advancements in optical technology within the telecommunications infrastructure, which is expected to maintain the current level of demand from major telecommunications providers.

Electric power cable sales also remained unchanged from the initial forecast, totalling 45,000 t and reflecting a 7.4% increase over last year. Despite concerns about material and personnel shortages, the forecast was maintained due to the need for equipment upgrades and rising demand associated with renewable energy sources.

Production for electrical machinery reached 134,000 t, slightly down by 3,000 t from the initial prediction, but still up 1.9% from the previous year. This adjustment was due to a slightly larger-than-expected drop in demand in the home appliance sector during the stay-at-home period. However, the semiconductor shortage is expected to improve gradually, surpassing the previous year's level.

Automobile production remains at 90,000 t as initially forecasted, with a projected 7% y-o-y increase. The easing of semiconductor supply constraints is expected to drive this growth.

Construction and electronic sales were adjusted down by 3,000 t from the initial estimate to reach 301,000 t, showing a 1.2% increase from the previous year. Although demand related to the Osaka-Kansai Expo didn't grow as expected, it's still anticipated to surpass the previous year due to reduced pandemic-related delays and extensive urban development.

Sales for other domestic demand remained unchanged at 41,000 t, reflecting a 3.3% increase from the prior year. This increase is attributed to the recovery in private capital investment.

The export forecast has been adjusted down by 6,000 t to 14,000 t, marking a 19.5% decrease compared to the previous year. This downward revision is consistent with last year's trend when the forecast was also reduced because of major electric power projects and a slower Chinese economy. It is anticipated that this year's export volume will be lower than the previous year as well.

This article has been published under an exchange agreement between Japan metal daily and SteelMint.