Japan: Copper wire demand forecast for FY'24 shows decline by 7,000 t

Japan Metal Daily: The Japan Electric Wire Manufacturers Association has revealed its copper wire demand projections for the financial year 2024 (FY'24), which typically runs from 1 April 2024 to 31 March 2025. Total volume across all categories reached 625,000 tonnes (t), marking a drop of 7,000 t from the preliminary forecast announced in March, driven by a growth in electrical machinery and exports. The initial outlook indicates that overall domestic demand is expected to increase. However, sales to the electrical machinery sector, which has a significant volume, and to the automotive industry are expected to decline.

In the telecommunications sector, production reached 8,000 t, reflecting a 2.6% y-o-y increase, unchanged from the initial forecast. With a shift towards optical cables, the demand for metal cables is projected to remain steady. Meanwhile, electricity production continues to be unchanged at 47,000 t, a 6.6% y-o-y increase. Although a substantial rise in demand is unlikely due to a shortage of construction personnel, there is ongoing demand, driven by equipment renewal and renewable energy initiatives.

Electrical machinery production was 121,000 t, reflecting a downward revision of 6,000 t. This represents a 0.2% decline compared to the previous year. The electronics and communications division reported sluggish demand for factory automation (FA) robots and medical-related products, with expectations of decreased demand for electrical components linked to automobiles.

Automobile production decreased by 3,000 t from the initial forecast to 90,000 t, marking a decrease of 2.6% from the previous year. This decline is attributed to production setbacks stemming from shipment suspensions related to certification fraud issues among automobile companies. Additionally, the battery EV market, which is anticipated to drive copper demand, remains relatively small compared to other countries.

Construction and electronics sales dropped by 0.3% y-o-y to 302,000 t. While there is demand for large-scale projects such as semiconductor factories and urban redevelopment, concerns linger over delays in small and medium-sized projects and a decrease in housing starts due to a shrinking workforce and the 24-year issue. Supply to domestic markets surged by 1,000 t to 40,000 t, reflecting a 2.6% rise compared to the previous year.

Exports remained steady at 16,000 t, consistent with the initial forecast but a 33.3% increase compared to the previous year. The rising demand for electricity, coupled with investments in renewable energy facilities for decarbonisation and the development of interconnection lines to ensure stable supply, is expected to support this growth.

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