Japan: Aluminium plate imports reach 13.4% in H1, yen appreciation may boost trend

Imported aluminium sheet products continued to dominate the market. In the first half of calendar year 2024 (H1CY'24), the share of imports in the domestic market increased by 0.1% from 2023, reaching a record 13.4%. While Chinese products maintained a substantial market share, imports from the U.S. and other countries are also on the rise. A stronger yen could further reduce barriers to imports and potentially boost import volumes.

Aluminium sheet imports first exceeded 100,000 tonnes (t) in 2018 and reached a peak of 147,000 t in 2022. They have remained above 140,000 t in both 2023 and 2024. Despite this stability, domestic demand has declined, with domestic shipments falling 18% from 1.28 million tonnes (mnt) in 2017 to 1.05 mnt in 2023. Consequently, the share of imports in domestic demand has steadily increased, holding at 13% for three consecutive years since 2022.

The composition of imported products has evolved over the past five years. While Korean aluminium for beverage cans a key demand area continued to be imported, Chinese aluminium has recently decreased. Following the Covid-19 pandemic, major consumers in the printing press sector have shifted from Chinese to domestic materials. Meanwhile, imports of Chinese automotive heat exchanger materials, particularly cladding materials, have significantly increased. Annually, about 20,000 t of can materials are imported from Korea, and imports from the U.S., likely for aircraft equipment, are also gradually rising.

In the near term, imports are expected to maintain their current levels. Domestic price increases and the potential appreciation of the yen could make overseas materials more competitive. While Europe, the U.S., and several Asian countries have imposed anti-dumping and countervailing duties on Chinese materials due to unfair subsidies, Japan has not, facilitating easier entry for Chinese products. Additionally, leading local manufacturers are advancing their technology, resulting in significant improvements in product quality, with some Chinese materials now competing with Japanese products.

China's aluminium sheet market has experienced strong sales in the can and automobile sectors, but concerns about an economic slowdown remain. There is a possibility that unsold domestic aluminium sheets might be redirected to Japan, where tariffs, prices, and quality barriers are lower.

This article has been published under an agreement between BigMint and Japan Metal Daily.