India's stainless steel prices move southward amid drop in LME nickel prices, subdued demand

BigMint's assessment revealed that prices of imported 304 scrap have seen correction by $15/tonne (t) and are currently hovering at around $1,365/t. In the finish segment prices are range-bound compared to the previous week. BigMint's assessment for 304 HRC stood at INR 178,000/t, and the price of domestic 304-grade scrap is at INR 115,000/t ex-works in Delhi.

The stressed prices in the finish segment was mainly linked to a decline in nickel prices on the LME, dropping by $895/t w-o-w. Nickel prices for 3-month delivery on the LME saw a 5% decrease, reaching $17,445/t. Notably, nickel stocks in LME warehouses stand at 77,652 t, with an inflow of approximately 3,108 t for the week.

Scrap market insights

In the domestic scrap market, with 304 scrap priced between INR 114,000 to INR 116,000/t, and 316-grade scrap at approximately INR 208,000/t ex-Delhi, mostly stable.

A source informed BigMint, that majorly only mill based buyers are currently procuring scrap from the domestic market.

Another trade source mentioned that the purchasing trend in Indian market is currently on the lower side due to pre-election uncertainties. There's anticipation that the market could witness some improvement in the coming months, possibly around mid-April or May.

During this week, there has been a slight decrease in the offers for imported scrap, with prices dropping by $15/t. Suppliers are now quoting prices for 304 grade scrap at $1,365/t. Meanwhile, prices for 316 grade scrap have mostly stayed stable at $2,550/t, CFR Mundra. Despite this, demand and buying interest have remained relatively subdued in the market.

A scrap supplier mentioned: "Still Indian mill prices are not competitive when compared to European bids, as the latter are up to $120/t higher than those in India. Current offers for 304 grade in Europe are in the range of $1,470-1,490/t levels, while bids hover around $1,450-1,460/t."

Meanwhile, offer levels for 430 grade were reportedly at $650/t, and for 201 grades, they were heard at $760-780/t levels, CFR Mundra.

Finished segment

This week, in the finish market, prices remained range-bound. According to BigMint's assessment, 304 HRC priced at INR 178,000/t and 316 HRC is at INR 305,000/t.

In the long products segment, 304 CRAP wire rods are available at around INR 168,000/t ex-Mumbai.

China market overview

During the week, China's domestic stainless steel market experienced a marginal decrease. Prices for 304 grade CRC reached RMB 15,000/t ($2,083/t), marking a drop of RMB 100/t ($13/t), ex-works in China. FOB prices for 304 grade CRC stood at $2,093/t, down $25/t.

Raw materials scenario

Ferro molybdenum: Indian ferro molybdenum prices fell by INR 41,000/t ($494/t) w-o-w as compared to the previous assessment on 13 March. Due to the conclusion of the financial year approaching and unfavorable sentiments in the stainless steel market, prices decreased as demand for the material remained low. Indian ferro molybdenum prices were at INR 2,365,000/t ($29,056/t) exw-Nagpur on a 60% pro rata basis.

Ferro chrome: Indian ferro chrome prices (HCFeCr60%) stood at INR 115,000/t exw-Jajpur. Prices witnessed a marginal decline of INR 1,000/t compared to the previous week, reflecting volatile market dynamics.

Outlook

The domestic market is anticipated to remain subdued, influenced by factors such as the end of the financial year, uncertainties surrounding the upcoming elections, and the approaching Holi week. Ni LME contraction may also impact the finish prices.