India's stainless steel prices hold firm for 2nd consecutive week on stable LME nickel

India's stainless steel prices remained firm for the second consecutive week. The slight increase was due to stable LME nickel prices and a price hike by India's leading stainless steel manufacturer, raising prices by up to INR 3,000/tonne (t) across all grades of coils. This marked the second consecutive price increase, driven by rebounding LME nickel prices and a seasonal uptick in demand.

BigMint's benchmark assessments of stainless steel (304 series) HRC prices stood at INR 178,000/t ex-Mumbai and domestic 304-grade scrap was at INR 120,500/t ex-works Delhi.

LME nickel prices trends

At the time of reporting, the three-month prices of LME nickel stood at $16,300/t, largely stable from the previous week's levels. Meanwhile, stocks of nickel in LME-registered warehouses kept increasing w-o-w, reaching 110,106 t from the previous week's 105,186 t.

Russian nickel, largely non-tradable due to sanctions, distorts LME inventory figures, impacting availability and prices. With Russian stocks comprising 20-22% of LME totals and sanctions likely to persist, market participants are urging LME to urgently correct these figures.

Domestic finished flats prices firm

In the finished flat segment, prices saw a marginal gain this week. As per BigMint's assessment, 304 HRC prices stood at INR 177,000-179,000/t, while prices of the SS316 HRC stood at INR 308,000-310,000/t ex-Mumbai.

A source said, "Finished market demand has improved compared to previous weeks, with some deals being finalized. However, while there is progress, the market cannot yet be considered strong."

Recently, around 120 t of SS 304 CRC was heard traded at INR 188,000/t, ex-Mumbai.

Domestic finished longs' (AOD grade) indicative levels

In the finished longs segment, 304 black round bars were priced at INR 173,000-175,000/t exw-Mumbai, while SS 304 bright bars were at INR 198,000-200,000/t exw-Mumbai. SS316 black round bars were offered at INR 283,000-285,000/t exw-Mumbai, and SS316 bright bars were priced at INR 313,000-315,000/t exw-Mumbai.

Scrap market insights

In the local market, prices of the 304 scrap were assessed at INR 120,500/t ex-Delhi NCR, on cash payment terms. Sources indicated that major mills are purchasing 304 scrap at approximately INR 124,000-126,000/t delivered (DAP), with a credit period of 45 days.

This week, imported scrap prices saw a marginal uptick due to a rise in inquiries for imported material, reflecting a market improvement. BigMint's evaluation reported 304-grade scrap prices at $1,410/t CFR Mundra. Suppliers are quoting SS 304 scrap at $1,420-$1,430/t, while buyers' bids range slightly lower at $1,380-$1,390/t.

The 316-grade scrap was priced at $2,600/t CFR Mundra, with some suppliers offering it at $2,620-$2,630/t. Buyers' bids are currently at around $2,580/t.

Sources informed BigMint, the current sea freights from Thailand/Indonesia stand at $2,400-$2,500/20-foot container.

Additionally, SS 410 was at $660-$680/t CFR Mundra. Meanwhile, offers for SS Zurik scrap originating from the US ranged from $1,310-$1,370/t levels for SS content of 90-95%. Additionally, a recent transaction for 40 t of zurik (SS-98%) from Europe was reported at $1,380/t CFR Mundra.

China market overview

During the week, China's domestic stainless steel prices stood firm w-o-w. Prices of the 304 grade CRC reached RMB 14,600/t ($2,033/t) ex-works. Meanwhile, prices of 304 grade CRC stood at $2,093/t FOB.

In the first half of 2024, China's crude stainless steel production reached 18.8 million tonnes, a 5.9% increase y-o-y. Cr-Ni stainless steel made up 50.15% of the total at 9.4 million tonnes, up 9.3%. Apparent consumption rose 5.8% to 15.69 million tonnes.

Global updates

Russia's stainless steel production declines

In June, Russia's stainless steel production fell to 23,000 t, down 5% from May and 24% y-o-y. For the first half of the year, output dropped by 9.1% to 147,000 t. Imports are set to rise, with 2023's 490,000 t reflecting a 31% increase, over 50% from China.

POSCO launches new stainless steel association in Turkiye

POSCO Assan TST and Kibar Holdings have established the Stainless Steel Industry Association (PASSAD) in Turkiye. Launched amid ongoing anti-dumping investigations and increased customs rates, PASSAD aims to represent POSCO Assan TST and address market concerns. The association comes as Turkiye's stainless steel demand rises.