India's stainless steel prices firm w-o-w on rebound in LME nickel; imported scrap inquiries improve
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India's stainless prices stood firm w-o-w. The minor increase seen in prices were primarily attributed to the rebound in LME nickel prices and the increase effected by India's leading stainless steel manufacturer across all grades of coils by up to INR 3,000/tonne (t).
BigMint's benchmark assessments of stainless steel (304 series) HRC prices stood at INR 177,000/t ex-Mumbai and domestic 304-grade scrap was at INR 120,000/t ex-works Delhi.
LME nickel prices rebound
At the time of reporting, the three-month prices of LME nickel stood at $16,470/t, up by 2.5% from the previous week's $16,000/t. Meanwhile, stocks of nickel in LME-registered warehouses kept increasing consistently w-o-w reaching 105,090 t from the previous week's 103,686 t.
The Indonesian Nickel Miners Association (APNI) is launching the Indonesia Metals Exchange (IME) in 2025. This initiative aims to reduce Indonesia's reliance on international benchmarks like the London Metal Exchange (LME) and the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE).
The announcement has already impacted nickel markets, with significant price increases observed. Nickel prices surged by over 5.6% on the SHFE and 2.4% on the LME, reflecting immediate market reactions to the news.
Asian stainless steel prices are already responding to the increase in nickel prices. While a decline in stainless steel prices had been anticipated in some regions, this has not occurred and has instead been reversed today.
However, market participants expect the recent surge in LME nickel prices to be temporary, as global nickel oversupply persists.
Domestic finished flats prices firm despite sluggish demand
In the finished flat segment, prices saw a marginal drop this week. As per BigMint's assessment, 304 HRC prices stood at INR 176,000-178,000/t, while prices of the SS316 HRC stood at INR 307,000-309,000/t ex-Mumbai.
According to a source, "Despite a slight increase in prices, demand in the downstream segment remains sluggish, showing minimal activity."
India's flat product exports drop in Q1FY'25
India's finished flat product exports dropped by 25% in Q1FY'25, totalling 76,511 t compared to 102,187 t in Q1FY'24. This decline was attributed to stagnant growth in the US and EU markets, coupled with the Red Sea crisis, which extended transit times and raised freight costs.
Domestic finished longs' (AOD grade) indicative levels
In the finished longs segment, price indications for 304 black round bars were heard at INR 173,000-175,000/t exw-Mumbai. Additionally, prices for SS 304 bright bars were heard at INR 198,000-200,000/t exw-Mumbai.
Indicative offers of SS316 black round bars were at INR 283,000-285,000/t exw-Mumbai. Additionally, price levels for SS316 bright bars were heard at INR 313,000-315,000/t exw-Mumbai.
Scrap market insights
In the local market, prices of the 304 scrap were assessed at INR 120,000/t ex-Delhi NCR, on cash payment terms. Sources indicated that major mills are purchasing 304 scrap at approximately INR 123,000-125,000/t delivered (DAP), with a credit period of 45 days.
This week, imported scrap prices maintained stability. BigMint's assessment shows prices for 304-grade scrap stood at $1,400/t CFR Mundra. Meanwhile, suppliers are quoting SS 304 scrap at $1,420-$1,430/t, while buyers' bids are slightly lower at $1,380/t levels.
The 316-grade scrap was priced at $2,600/t CFR Mundra, with some suppliers offering it at $2,620-$2,630/t. However, buyers' bids are in at around $2,580/t.
A trade source informed, "Inquiries for imported scrap have improved this week with a slight drop in freight rates. Successful bookings were reported, and we plan to resume booking at $1,380/t for SS 304 grade and at $2,580/t for the SS 316 grade."
Freight costs from Thailand/Malaysia, previously at $3,000/20-foot container, have now decreased to around $2,200-2,400/container.
Additionally, SS201 scrap is offered at $730-$750/t and SS 430 at $630-$650/t CFR Mundra. Meanwhile, offers for SS Zurik scrap originating from the US ranges from $1,300-$1,350/t levels for SS content of 90-95%.
China market overview
During the week, China's domestic stainless steel prices stood largely stable w-o-w. Prices of the 304 grade CRC reached RMB 14,550/t ($1,986/t) ex-works. Meanwhile, prices of 304 grade CRC stood at $2,076/t FOB.
In the first half of 2024, China's stainless steel imports rose by 31.43% to 1.11 mnt, while June's imports were 131,000 t, up 11% y-o-y but down 25% m-o-m. Exports totalled 2.36 mnt, up 16% y-o-y, with June exports at 453,000 t, a 32% y-o-y increase but 1% lower m-o-m.
Raw materials scenario
Ferro molybdenum: Indian ferro molybdenum prices saw a slight drop of INR 14,000/t ($167/t) w-o-w in comparison to the previous assessment on 24 July. Prices largely remained stable as buying activities remained slow in the domestic market.
As per BigMint's assessment on 31 July, ferro molybdenum prices in India were at INR 2,561,000/t ($30,583/t) exw-Nagpur on a 60% pro rata basis. In the previous concluded week, no trades were reported to BigMint.
Ferro chrome: Indian ferro chrome prices (HC, FeCr60%) stood at INR 106,200/t exw-Jajpur, down by INR 1,700/t w-o-w.
Outlook
Stainless steel prices are likely to stay within a narrow range due to a minor rise in LME nickel prices, and subdued buying interest.
