India's stainless steel prices firm w-o-w on notable rise in LME nickel

• SS finished flat prices witness weekly gains
  
  
• LME nickel prices gain over 4%
  
  

India's stainless steel finished flat prices witnessed weekly gains and scrap prices in the domestic as well as imported segment remained firm driven by a notable rise LME nickel prices.

BigMint's benchmark assessments of stainless steel (304 series) HRC prices stood at INR 181,000/tonne (t) ex-Mumbai and domestic 304-grade scrap was at INR 121,000/t ex-works Delhi.

Rising LME nickel prices

At the time of reporting, the three-month prices of LME nickel stood at $16,935/t, up by over 4% as compared against the previous week's $16,200/t levels. Meanwhile, stocks of nickel in LME-registered warehouses kept increasing w-o-w, reaching 114,066 t from the previous week's 113,712 t.

LME nickel prices surged to their highest level since 11 July due to expectations of US Federal Reserve rate cuts and a weakening US dollar. Concurrently, China's optimism grew with new subsidies for new energy vehicles, significantly boosting nickel prices. This combination of a lower dollar and supportive Chinese policies led to the notable price increase.

Domestic finished flats prices positive

In the finished flat segment, prices saw a marginal gain this week. As per BigMint's assessment, 304 HRC prices stood at INR 180,000-182,000/t, while prices of the SS316 HRC stood at INR 311,000-313,000/t ex-Mumbai.

A source said, "This week, market prices for finished flat products have increased, primarily due to consecutive price hikes by leading stainless steel flat product manufacturers and a sharp rise in LME nickel prices. Despite the price increases, demand for finished products remains low to moderate, showing slight sluggishness due to the long weekend and festive holidays. Transactional activity has been minimal, with no significant deals reported."

Domestic finished longs' (AOD grade) indicative levels

In the finished longs segment, 304L black round bars were priced at INR 207,000-208,000/t exw-Mumbai, while SS 304 bright bars were at INR 220,000-223,000/t exw-Mumbai. SS 316L black round bars were offered at INR 310,000-312,000/t exw-Mumbai, and SS 316L bright bars were priced at INR 325,000-327,000/t exw-Mumbai.

A mill source informed BigMint, "Currently, demand for stainless steel finished long products is lower due to the festival season."

Scrap market insights

In the local market, prices of the 304 scrap were assessed at INR 121,000/t ex-Delhi NCR, on cash payment terms. Sources indicated that major mills are purchasing 304 scrap at approximately INR 124,000-126,000/t delivered (DAP), with a credit period of 45 days.

Imported scrap prices saw a marginal uptick due to a improved inquiries for imported material for the second consecutive week, reflecting a slight market improvement.

BigMint's benchmark assessment for imported SS 304-grade scrap price stood at $1,420/t CFR Mundra, up by $10/t w-o-w. Meanwhile, suppliers are quoting SS 304 scrap at $1,450-$1,460/t, while buyers' bids range slightly lower at $1,400-$1,410/t.

A recent deal was heard for 50 t of SS 304 scrap from the nearshore region at $1,415/t, CFR Mundra.

The 316-grade scrap was priced at $2,625/t CFR Mundra, with some suppliers offering it at $2,640-$2,650/t. Buyers' bids are currently at around $2,600-$2,620/t.

Sources informed BigMint, the current sea freights from Thailand/Indonesia stood at $1,800-$2,000/20-feet container.

Additionally, SS 201 was at $730-$750/t and the indicative levels for SS 430 scrap was heard at $640-$650/t, both CFR Mundra. Meanwhile, offers for SS Zurik scrap originating from the US ranged from $1,320-$1,390/t levels for SS content of 90-95%.

European stainless steel market

For September 2024, EU mills are set to announce new stainless steel alloy surcharges. Despite the phasing out of the dinosaur alloy surcharge, interest in stainless steel persisted, with the EU electric arc furnaces now using over 90% stainless steel scrap.

European stainless steel scrap has been in tight supply for months, driving up prices. This issue, noted in recent reports, has been ongoing since early 2024 and is being addressed by European recycling associations.

The tight availability of scrap, coupled with rising demand, is expected to keep prices high in the third quarter (Q3). Empty warehouses and increased deliveries in Q2 contributed to this trend, suggesting that stainless steel prices are likely to remain stable in September.

A trader source from EU region mentioned, "European domestic scrap consumption seems strong as local mills are giving more than $1550/t for SS 304-grade scrap."

China market overview

During the week, China's domestic stainless steel prices stood largely stable w-o-w. Prices of the 304 grade CRC reached RMB 14,400/t ($2,038/t) ex-works. Meanwhile, prices of 304 grade CRC stood at $2,106/t FOB.

Global updates

US issues preliminary AD ruling on Taiwan's stainless steel

The USDOC's preliminary determination found that Taiwan's stainless steel sheet and strip in coils were sold below normal value from 1 July, 2022, to 30 June, 2023. The review was rescinded for 52 companies with no suspended entries of the products. The estimated dumping margin is 21.10% for Yieh Trading Corporation and 21.10% for Chia Far Industrial, Ta Chen Stainless Pipe, Tang Eng Iron Works, and Yu Ting Industries. Final results will be issued within 120 days.

Japan stainless steel imports surge in Jun'24

In June, Japan imported 25,260 t of stainless steel, up 4.9% y-o-y. Cold-rolled steel plates made up 16,450 t, up 5.6%. Imports from China surged 72.9% to 8,129 t, with chrome cold-rolled products at 2,965 t. Imports from Taiwan and South Korea declined, increasing China's share to 49%.

Raw materials scenario

Ferro molybdenum: Indian ferro molybdenum prices remained range-bound over the previous week with some fluctuations. Prices increased by INR 41,000/t ($489/t) w-o-w compared to the assessment on 14 August, but the overall market remained stable.

As per BigMint's assessment on 21 August, ferro molybdenum prices in India were INR 2,487,000/t ($29,640/t) ex-works Nagpur on a 60% pro rata basis.

Ferro chrome: Indian ferro chrome prices (HC, FeCr60%) stood at INR 103,100/t exw-Jajpur, stood stable w-o-w.

Outlook