India's silicon imports up 14% in H1CY'24, volumes from China dominate
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In H1CY'24, silicon metal imports into India surged by 14% y-o-y to 45,665 tonnes (t) compared to 40,220 t in H1CY'23. This rise in imports was driven primarily by increased supply from China, a decline in imported silicon metal prices, and increased consumption within the aluminium alloy sector.
During the same period, exports from China to India saw a marked rise of about 27%. China is a major supplier, accounting for approximately 90% of India's silicon metal imports. Globally, China is the largest producer of silicon metal, exporting over 50% of its production worldwide.
Customs data reveals that China's total exports for the first half of 2024 reached 364,900 t, marking a 27% increase compared to the same period last year.
Despite a 27% y-o-y increase in exports for H1CY'24, the export unit price dropped significantly, falling 30% y-o-y to $1,966/t due to an oversupply in the domestic market. Notable increases in export volumes were seen in the UAE, Thailand, the Netherlands, and India. Conversely, South Korea and Bahrain experienced slight decreases.
At the end of June and beginning of July, export tax inspections temporarily disrupted the export market. However, by late July, the impact of these inspections eased.
Due to supply pressures and increased capacity utilisation among major companies, along with the partial launch of silicon metal facilities supporting polysilicon production, silicon prices declined. This led to a squeeze on the profits of silicon metal producers, with most companies except for the leading ones and those engaged in hedging, operating at a loss. This oversupply of silicon metal in the Chinese domestic market led to increased exports to other countries, which boosted the export volume in the first half of 2024.
Silicon metal pricing
According to BigMint's assessment, the average price of silicon metal (553) fell by 11% y-o-y in H1CY'24 to $2,000/t compared to $2,253/t in H1CY'23.
This decline in imported silicon metal prices is primarily attributed to lower silicon metal prices in China, driven by increased production and a build-up of excess inventory in the domestic Chinese market.
Port-wise and city-wise imports
In H1CY'24, the primary ports for silicon metal inflows were JNPT with 8,055 t, Chennai with 6,930 t, and Kolkata with 6,630 t. Inflows through other ports totalled 18,861 t.
Mumbai was the largest importer of silicon metal, receiving 14,064 t, followed by New Delhi with 5,049 t, and Kolkata with 3,645 t. Faridabad imported 3,150 t, while Chennai received 3,049 t. These cities are key hubs for alloy ingot manufacturing and hold a significant role in the silicon metal supply chain.
Country-wise imports
In H1CY'24, China remained the dominant silicon metal exporter to India with 40,787 t, a 27% increase from 32,012 t in H1CY'23. Malaysia's exports of the material to India saw a significant reduction at only 2,940 t, marking a 50% decrease. Norway's exports to India were at a mere 621 t. Angola, which had no recorded exports to India, saw volumes of 284 t this year. Exports from other countries totalled 1,031 t, down 8% from 1,125 t in the same period last year.
Outlook
Looking ahead, silicon metal imports are expected to remain largely stable, as most alloy ingot manufacturers currently hold sufficient inventories. However, with increased automobile inventories likely leading to a decrease in demand for ADC12, silicon metal imports could see a decline in the near term.
