India's refined copper cathode imports surge m-o-m in Jul'24 despite rise in domestic output

In July 2024, India's imports of refined copper cathodes soared by 173% m-o-m, jumping to 26,571 tonnes (t) from 9,720 t in June. This sharp increase highlights the country's escalating demand and reliance on copper cathodes.

Despite a 24% rise in domestic production, which climbed from 37,000 t in June to 46,000 t in July, India continued to import significant volumes of refined copper. The increase in imports of refined cathodes can be attributed to domestic production struggling to keep pace with the country's growing demand for copper. Despite significant efforts to boost local output, the rapid rise in demand has led India to rely heavily on imports to meet its needs.

In addition to the dramatic rise in cathode imports, India's overall semi-finished copper imports, encompassing cathodes, anodes, and billets, increased by 22.5% m-o-m from 36,695 t in June to 44,942 t in July.

Within this category, copper cathodes which majorly came from two countries, Japan and Congo saw substantial increases. Imports from Japan surged from 3,250 t in June to 13,399 t in July, a remarkable 312% rise. This increase was fuelled by the free trade agreement (FTA) between India and Japan, which provides duty exemptions, and a boost in Japan's refined copper output. Similarly, imports from Congo rose from 5,646 t in June to 12,796 t in July, reflecting a significant 127% increase.

Anode, billet imports decline

Conversely, imports of anodes fell sharply by 35.7% m-o-m from 25,635 t in June to 16,492 t in July. This decrease contrasts with the rise in cathode imports, signalling a shift in demand towards more refined copper products. Billet imports also saw a significant drop of 47.5%, from 168 t in June to 88 t in July. Meanwhile, the "others" category experienced a notable increase of 52.8%, growing from 1,172 t to 1,791 t.

Copper scrap imports register modest increase

Copper scrap imports demonstrated a modest m-o-m increase of 5%, rising from 32,300 t in June to 34,035 t in July. This increase was accompanied by varied trends across different scrap grades. Brass honey, the highest volume grade, saw a slight rise of 2%. The birch and berry grades experienced notable growth, with birch imports up by 31% and berry imports increasing by 33%. In contrast, barley grade imports declined sharply by 25%.

Looking at the country-wise imports, Saudi Arabia saw a decreased by 3%, from 4,813 t in June to 4,661 t in July. The United States (US) saw a significant decline of 23%, with imports from the country dropping from 4,458 t to 3,436 t. Similarly, imports from Germany fell sharply by 27.2%, from 4,387 t to 3,193 t. Conversely, the United Kingdom (UK) recorded a notable increase of 35%, with imports rising from 2,811 t in June to 3,787 t in July. The United Arab Emirates (UAE) also saw a modest increase of 8%, growing from 1,757 t to 1,900 t.

The decline in Indian copper scrap imports from major European exporters, such as Germany can be attributed to the seasonal slowdown during the summer holidays in Europe. This period typically results in reduced industrial activity and lower export volumes. However, the UK and the UAE benefited from this seasonal lull, increasing their export volumes to India.

Outlook

Looking ahead, it is expected that imports of refined copper cathodes will stay high. Even with an increase in domestic production, India's persistently high import levels, especially for refined cathodes, underscore a robust and growing demand for copper, driven by expanding industrial and infrastructure projects.