India's power sector CO2 emissions rise to over 1.1 billion tonnes in FY'23- Govt data
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*95% of power sector emissions originate from coal, lignite
*Weighted average grid emission factor one of the highest globally
*Share of renewable energy and storage around 30% of installed capacity
Morning Brief: India's carbon emissions from the power sector stood at over 1.1 billion tonnes (bnt) of CO2e in the financial year 2022-2023 (FY'23), as per data published by the Central Electricity Authority (CEA). India is the third-largest GHG emitter in the world after China and the US and total emissions in 2023 stood at around 2.8 bnt. The country's power sector has a share of roughly 40% of total emissions.
Data shows that 95% of India's power sector emissions originate from coal and lignite and Indian coal is predominantly high-ash low-GCV which makes the power sector highly inefficient with a high carbon footprint. CEA data reveals that as of 31 March, 2023 the share of coal in India's installed capacity stood at 52.92% while renewable energy and storage (wind, solar) account for over 30%. Big pumped hydro has a share of over 11%.
High grid emissions factor
As per CEA estimates, India's net electricity generation in FY'23, including imports but excluding generation from renewable energy sources, was around 1,326.91 billion units (BU). After including generation from renewable energy and captive production in the national grid total generation stood at 1,546.27 BU.
Total emissions were assessed at over 1 GtCO2, with a weighted specific emission factor of 0.716 tCO2/MWh, which is one of the highest in the world. The weighted average emission factor increased marginally in FY'23. This was mainly due to the increase in total electricity generation. Coal generation increased by around 10% but gas- and nuclear-based generation fell by 3.3% and 2.6% respectively. Net imports reduced by 10% y-o-y, as per CEA.
Power demand to rise fourfold
A study conducted by The Energy Resources Institute (TERI) estimates that the grid electricity generation requirement is likely to increase fourfold, from 1,210 TWh in 2019 to 5,246 TWh by 2050 in the baseline scenario, while in the low-carbon scenario it is 4,985 TWh. The peak electricity demand will range between 700 GW and 750 GW by 2050.
However, this does not mean that growth in emissions will be commensurate to growth in electricity demand. Considering India's robust commitments to developing renewable energy, studies suggest that, with the current assessment of technology-wise cost projections, variable renewable energy (VRE) capacity may go up to a level of 85-90% by 2050.
This VRE integration is likely to be driven by solar photovoltaic technology, complemented by the addition of battery energy storage system (BESS). The capacity addition of solar PV and BESS is, according to a TERI study, the least-cost option as compared to other technologies such as nuclear, hydro, and non-pithead coal power stations.
Solar PV and BESS capacity may altogether replace non-pithead coal generators and even substitute the cheaper pithead coal-based power plants by 2040. However, to achieve these objectives investments of $1.2-1.6 trillion would be needed by 2050 to build generation capacity and energy storage to supply growing electricity demand in India.
