India's iron ore exports rise over 20% y-o-y in H1CY'24 but June volumes decline

• Exports to China up 15% y-o-y in Jan-Jun'24
  
  
• Rungta, JSW Steel, Vedanta top exporters
  
  

India's iron ore fines and lumps exports were recorded at 20.26 million tonnes (mnt) in H1CY'24 (January-June, 2024) against 16.79 mnt in the same period of last year, showing a y-o-y rise of around 21%, according to data maintained with BigMint. China remained the largest importer at 18.8 mnt. Rungta Mines was the largest exporter at 4.35 mnt followed by JSW Steel (3.41 mnt) and Vedanta (1.93 mnt).

However, export volumes fell by 19% m-o-m in June to 2.64 mnt against 3.25 mnt recorded in May.

Meanwhile, pellet exports increased by around 18% in the period under review to 5.40 mnt against 4.59 mnt in H1CY'23.

Factors driving iron ore exports in H1CY'24

• Rise in Chinese imports: China, the world's largest iron ore consumer and importer, recorded iron ore and pellet imports at 513.746 mnt in January-May 2024, according to General Administration of Customs. Imports witnessed a 7% increase y-o-y compared to 481.03 mnt in the same period of last year amid stability in the country's crude steel output. Meanwhile, the Central Bank of China reduced interest rates on personal housing provident fund loans by 0.25 percentage points on 18 May, affecting both first and second sets of loans. The announcement generated a bullish mood in the market, with traders anticipating favourable outcomes. India's iron ore exports to China were recorded at 18.79 mnt in H1CY'24 against 16.3 mnt in H1CY'23.
  
  

• JSW, Karnataka miners raise exports: JSW Steel's export volumes witnessed a sharp growth of 3.41 mnt in H1CY'24 against a mere 0.41 mnt in the year-ago period. Additional volumes were reported exported from Karnataka, with MSPL and A One Steel at around 0.29 and 0.28 mnt, respectively, supporting overall export volumes.
  
  
• Supportive global iron ore prices: The hike in India's iron ore exports in H1CY'24 was facilitated by supportive global iron ore prices, providing a favourable environment for increased trade activity. BigMint's India's Fe 57% export index remained stable at $70/t FOB east coast India in the period under review. However, prices witnessed a drop of around $10/t FOB in June to $60/t FOB compared to $70/t FOB in May.
  
  

Outlook

With increasing Chinese inventory levels and falling margins, India's iron ore export market is expected to fluctuate in the coming time. The demand for higher discounts from Chinese buyers could potentially lower the overall volume of exports. Meanwhile, in the same direction, a major Australian miner increased the discount for lower-grade fines to 15% for June deliveries from 6-7% in the beginning of the year on weakening Chinese demand.

BigMint is back with its flagship conference, the 7th Indian Iron Ore & Pellet Summit, to be held over 22nd and 23rd August, 2024. Sessions will be focused on India's steel raw materials market dynamics. Experts will delve deep into pricing trends and iron ore supply-demand projections for 2030. The spotlight will be on how India is readying itself to fulfill the rising demand for iron ore as well as regulatory framework and policy implications. Come, join us at The Leela Ambience, Gurugram, India, for a healthy exchange of ideas and networking opportunities.