India's iron ore exports fall to over 1.5-year low in Jul'24 amid weak Chinese demand

• Exports to China down by 5% m-o-m in Jul'24
  
  
• JSW Steel's export volumes fall over 60%
  
  
• China's port inventory reaches 2.5-year high
  
  

India's iron ore fines and lumps exports were recorded at 1.86 million tonnes (mnt) in July, 2024 against 2.75 mnt in June, 2024, showing a m-o-m drop of around 32%, according to data maintained with BigMint. Notably, export volumes were recorded at over 1.5-year low, according to data maintained with BigMint.

China remained the largest importer at 1.56 mnt. Rungta Mines was the largest exporter at 0.825 mnt followed by JSW Steel (0.33 mnt).

Meanwhile, pellet exports decreased by around 17% in the month under review to 0.74 mnt against 0.89 mnt in June, 2024.

Why iron ore exports fell to over 1.5-year low?

• Exports to China fall on weaker market sentiments: China, the world's largest iron ore consumer and importer, recorded iron ore imports from India at 1.56 mnt in July, 2024. Imports witnessed a 42% fall m-o-m compared to 2.67 mnt in June, 2024 amid drop in the country's crude steel output. The average daily crude steel production volumes of CISA-affiliated mills declined by around 1.7% m-o-m compared to 2.185 mnt in mid-June.
  
  

• JSW's exports drop over 60%: JSW Steel's export volumes witnessed a sharp decrease of around 61% to 0.33 mnt in July, 2024 against 0.84 mnt in the previous month. Also, Karnataka-based sellers which were reported to be active in the previous months were absent from the seaborne market in July, 2024.
  
  
• China's iron ore inventory rises to 2.5-year high: Chinese iron ore portside inventory stood at around 150 mnt towards end-July, 2024 against 147 mnt towards end-June, 2024. It is to be noted that the inventory has risen to 2.5-year high as same levels were reported in April, 2022, data maintained with BigMint showed.
  
  

• Global iron ore prices drop m-o-m: BigMint's bi-weekly assessment for low-grade iron ore fines witnessed a fall of around $10/t m-o-m to $60/t FOB east coast in June, 2024 when compared to $70/t FOB in May. However, it remained unchanged at $60/t FOB in July, 2024.
  
  

Outlook

With increasing Chinese inventory levels and falling margins, India's iron ore export market is expected to fluctuate in the coming time. Demand for higher discounts from Chinese buyers could potentially lower the overall volume of exports. Meanwhile, in the same direction, a major Australian miner has kept the higher discount level for lower-grade fines intact at 15% for August deliveries on weakening Chinese demand.

BigMint is back with its flagship conference, the 7th Indian Iron Ore & Pellet Summit, to be held over 22nd and 23rd August, 2024. Sessions will be focused on India's steel raw materials market dynamics. Experts will delve deep into pricing trends and iron ore supply-demand projections for 2030. The spotlight will be on how India is readying itself to fulfill the rising demand for iron ore as well as regulatory framework and policy implications. Come, join us at The Leela Ambience, Gurugram, India, for a healthy exchange of ideas and networking opportunities.