India's domestic, imported copper prices rise w-o-w following global trends

Domestic copper armature prices have been reported at INR 715,000/t, exy-Delhi, rising w-o-w, reflecting an increase of 1.4%.

Prices of secondary CCR rods (99%) were at INR 758,000/t ex Delhi, rising 1.6% w-o-w. Meanwhile, primary CC rods were observed at INR 788,000/t, up 3.1% w-o-w, Notably copper prices in the futures market LME have hit 11-month high levels i.e. up over $9,000/t levels recently followed by prices in SHFE which is currently at $10,770/t a rise of 4.4% w-o-w.

Imported scrap prices have increased by 1.8% w-o-w. Notably, brass honey scrap from the Middle East has risen by $100/t to $5,680/t.

The possibility of more maintenance at Chinese copper smelters in the second quarter of 2024, possibly up to 3 million metric tonnes of capacity, has caused the price of copper to rise sharply.

Also, the reason behind the price surge is the announcement that China's copper smelters have decided to reduce production due to a raw materials market that's much tighter than anticipated. Spot treatment charges, which are the fees smelters receive for processing mined concentrates into metal, have plummeted recently because there's not enough material to meet the demand from many buyers. Since China is the biggest buyer of concentrates globally, it's facing significant pressure on its smelter profits due to this shortage, BigMint noted.

A source informed BigMint: "Birch from the US appears to be redirected to China, Japan, and Korea because they are offering higher prices, up to 94%, compared to India. There seems to be a decrease in the quantity of birch available from Saudi Arabia and Kuwait currently. Indian buyers are bidding below 91%, while sellers are asking for more than 92%."

In the local north market, there's a shortage of copper raw materials due to suppliers clearing out their stocks before the year's end. Demand for secondary continuous cast copper rods (CCR) remained high in both the western and northern markets. However, some reports talk scrap, which was previously bought by northern mills, is now being redirected to Gujarat due to increased demand there.

Meanwhile, talk scrap from the US is being offered in the range of 53.5-54% of three-month LME futures, but actual trades happening at 53.5% of three-month LME, BigMint assessment of USA-origin talk scrap was at $4,840/t, up by $190/t w-o-w, Middle East origin largely from the UAE prices were recorded at $4,655/t, rise by $165/t w-o-w.

Recent offers, deals

Mill berry from the US are currently being offered flat LME copper prices CIF WC India.

UK Brass honey trade prices stood at 63% of LME cash prices.

Birch-Cliff scrap traded 92-92.25% LME prices from the US to CFR Mundra

Copper CC was traded at INR 790,000/t exw Delhi, 50 t, excluding GST.

Outlook

The domestic market is anticipated to remain subdued, influenced by factors such as the end of the financial year, uncertainties surrounding the upcoming elections, and the approaching Holi week.