India's copper prices rise w-o-w as futures hit 2-year high

Domestic copper armature prices have been reported at INR 797,000/t, exy-Delhi, rising w-o-w, reflecting an increase of 2.6%. Notably copper prices in the futures market of London Metal Exchange (LME) have hit 2-year high levels i.e. up over $9,900/t levels recently followed by prices in SHFE which is currently at $10,835/t a rise of 2.7% w-o-w.

Prices of secondary CCR rods (99%) were at INR 843,000/t ex Delhi, rising by 2.3% w-o-w. Meanwhile, primary CC rods were observed at INR 865,000/t, up by 2.2% w-o-w. Imported scrap prices have increased by up to 3.7% w-o-w.

Supply constraints impact copper market

Demand for secondary continuous cast copper rods (CCR) remained robust in the western and northern markets. However, reports suggested that talk scrap is experiencing reviving demand, with trades observed at 52.5 - 53.25% of LME prices for USA-origin material to CFR Mundra. Northern-based mills are able to secure Malaysian talk scrap at approximately $5,250-5,300/t, while UAE-origin talk scrap faced a price offer disparity of 0.5-0.75%.

This surge is also driven by the shutdown of First Quantum Minerals' large Cobre Panama mine in December. In the same month, Anglo American reduced its copper production estimates for 2024 by up to 210,000 t and for 2025 by as much as 180,000 t. They attributed this to lower ore grades and hardness at the Los Bronces mine in Chile.

BigMint's assessment of USA-origin talk scrap was at $5,180/t, 2.2% w-o-w, Middle East origin largely from the UAE prices were recorded at $4,940/t, rise by 1.5% w-o-w.

Recent offers, deals for the week

Copper strips pure (99%) EU origin traded at $835/t CIF Mundra recently.

Copper transformer scrap (around 30% cu) from USA traded at $2,615/t.

Mill berry from the US is currently being offered at 99.5% and 98.75% LME prices from the UAE, CFR WC India.

EU and USA Meat balls were at $1,900 - $1,910/t - offers for Far east countries recently.

UK brass honey trade prices stood at 62% of LME cash prices.

Birch-Cliff scrap traded at 91.75% LME prices from the US to CFR Mundra.

Copper primary CC was traded at INR 865,000/t exw Delhi, excluding GST.

Australia copper cables high grade (60%) from Australia was at 93.5% LME to CFR Chennai 2 days back.

Australia copper cables medium grade i.e 40% cu content was 91% LME to CFR Chennai 2 days back.

Australia copper cables low grade (25%) was at 88% LME to CFR Chennai 2 days back.

Brass honey 4-5% Australia-origin hovered at around 64% LME to Chennai.

Mexico-origin candy berry was traded at 96.25% LME to CIF Nhava Sheva recently.

Copper motors small from the US was traded at $1310/t to Mundra.

Outlook

Copper supplies are tightening as Chinese smelters plan output cuts, owing to disruptions in major mining areas. Additionally, the US and UK bans on new Russian copper trade may heighten price volatility and supply uncertainty.