India's aluminum ADC12 spot prices remain rangebound w-o-w

BigMint's assessment for spot prices of aluminium ADC12 alloy ingots show a marginal gain of INR 1,000/tonne (t) to INR 216,000/t w-o-w exw-Delhi NCR. Notably, tense scrap prices are at INR 188,000/t ex-Delhi, marking a weekly increase of INR 1,000/t. The scrap-to-ADC12 spread was recorded at INR 28,000-29,000/t.

Market sources indicated that tense offers in Chennai are hovering at INR 188,000/t, with spot prices of ADC12 in Chennai ranging between INR 218,000-INR 220,000/t exw on immediate terms, excluding GST.

The automobile equivalent manufacturers' spot prices were at a same level of major automaker's price, which stood at INR 221,000-223,000/t ex Delhi.

Firm ADC12 prices amidst challenging market conditions

Amid the stability in Tense prices in the northern region, prices of semi-finished products, including ADC12, have remained almost firm w-o-w. This firmness is despite a slow trend in purchase enquiries for ADC12, driven by somewhat lower demand and impacted cash movements due to the elections. Additionally, the prevailing heatwave has significantly affected worker efficiency, leading to a temporary reduction in production. Despite these challenging conditions, ADC12 prices have held steady amid weak demand and operational difficulties.

Market watchers inform that major producers are now gradually receiving delayed imported materials. This influx is easing pressure on raw materials prices, and the availability of scrap in the domestic market has improved as well.

In April, India's aluminium scrap imports increased by 5% m-o-m following an 18% rise in March. Despite this growth, imports were 4% lower than the same period last year, according to provisional data from BigMint. India's aluminium scrap imports totalled 135,816 t, reflecting a modest increase from 128,861 t in March. However, this was a slight decline compared to April 2023 when imports stood at 141,894 t.

A few medium-scale manufacturers from northern and western India reported difficulties in selling at prices lower than offered. However, with the easing of imported consignments they are now selling at lower than INR 217/kg and in smaller volumes to facilitate regular destocking. Additionally, production has been halved due to labour availability problems caused by heatwaves.

The Japanese market has not been actively purchasing, but it is expected to resume activity slowly. Bids for ADC12 from Japan to the UAE are at $2,400/t. However, suppliers find these levels currently unfeasible.

According to BigMint's assessment, imported tense (6-7%) from the US was assessed at $1,970/t, up by $10/t. Offers currently are higher at 2,030/t. Prices of zorba 95-5 from the UK stood at $2,150/t CFR Nhava Sheva. However, three-month aluminium futures are currently at $2,750/t, up 4% w-o-w.

Offers

Wheels offers from the UK to Chennai are at $2,510-2,520/t CFR Chennai.

Hong Kong wheels are at INR 2,430/t CFR Chennai.

UAE tense 8-9% offers are at around $1,960/t CFR Chennai.

Trump 8-9% at $2040-50/t CFR Chennai.

China's silicon market

According to BigMint, prices of China's silicon 553 have remained firm at $1,980/t CFR Mundra, as buyers had procured material when prices were lower.

The local price of silicon in Delhi NCR is at INR 183,000/t, decreasing w-o-w.

Outlook

Trade has been limited due to uncertainty at present. The market believes that the current levels in ADC12 prices is a temporary phase influenced by the liquidity issue and uncertain political climate. The market will stabilise and trends will emerge more clearly post-elections.