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India's aluminium ingot imports remain largely stable m-o-m in Aug'24 on weak market conditions, scrap falls

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Aluminium
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23 Sep 2024, 18:10 IST
India's aluminium ingot imports remain largely stable m-o-m in Aug'24 on weak market conditions, scrap falls

Total imports of aluminium alloyed ingots saw stability m-o-m with a marginal 0.8% rise, with the total volume rising from 22,644 tonnes (t) in July to 22,829 t in August, 2024.

ADC-12 Grade: ADC-12 imports fell dramatically by 41.7%, from 3,585 t in July to just 2,089 t in August. This severe drop could reflect a downturn in its demand, owing to weak demand and already existing inventories with manufacturers.

Why did ADC12 ingot imports fall?

The decline in ADC12 imports is primarily due to sluggish demand m-o-m and high inventory levels with the automobile sector. The current conditions reduced the need for aggressive purchasing, highlighting a broader slowdown in industries that rely on this alloy, particularly in die casting for automotive components.

A producer source said: "As demand for semi-finished products increases in China, Malaysian producers have found it advantageous to redirect their surplus production there instead of India."

In August, the average price levels of ADC12 in India from Malaysia ranged between $2,450-2,500/t, largely stable than the levels observed in July.

A356 Grade: This grade saw an increase from 10,761 t in July to 12,305 t in August, marking a significant rise of 14.4%. This could suggest a rising demand or favorable market conditions for this particular grade, commonly used in aerospace and automotive applications.

LM-24 Grade: This grade showed a moderate increase, moving from 259 t in July to 284 t in August, a growth of 9.5%. The LM-24 grade, known for its good corrosion resistance, seems to maintain a steady market interests.

LM6 Grade: Experiencing the most significant decrease among the grades, LM6 imports decreased by 48.6%, from 50 units to 26 t.

Aluminium billet imports experienced a notable increase m-o-m, rising from 3,943 t to 5,023 t. This represents a significant growth of 27.4% in August.

Country-wise alloyed ingot shipment

Malaysia's exports to India rose by 7.5%, from 9,859 t in July to 10,600 t, indicating steady growth. Qatar exports saw a more substantial increase of 21.7%, with imports growing from 3,180 to 3,868 t. In contrast, the UAE experienced a slight decline of 3.5%, with exports decreasing from 3,845 to 3,708 t.

Bahrain faced a sharp drop of 36.9%, with exports falling from 2,840 to 1,791 t, Meanwhile, Russia reported the highest growth, a 64.7% surge in exports, from 704 t in July to 1,159 in August.

How did raw material perform?

Aluminium scrap imports decline m-o-m in Aug'24

In August 2024, aluminium scrap imports were recorded at 159,000 t, down by 7.3% m-o-m as against July's 171,600 t.

Scrap imports have decreased due to weak market conditions, elevated inventories in the automobile sector, and competitive local raw material costs, all of which have contributed to the decline in imports.

The eastern region recorded imports of 5,000 t, while the northern region dominated with around 75,000 t. The southern region followed with 30,132 t, and the western region contributed 48,000 t to the overall total.

Grade-wise scrap imports

Zorba imports rose to 43,564 t in August, marking an 8.8% increase from July's 40,044 t. In contrast, taint tabor imports experienced a sharp decline of 21.7%, dropping from 39,682 t to 31,078 t. Extrusion (tread) imports also saw a slight decrease of 3.2%, from 24,075 to 23,313 t. Similarly, tense imports fell by 13.6%, down from 24,298 t to 20,983 t. Lastly, talk imports decreased by 6.6%, from 10,645 t to 9,938 t, reflecting a mixed trend in the aluminum alloyed ingot market for August.

Country-wise shipments

Exports from the US saw an increase, rising to 45,152 t from 40,786 t, which is a 10.7% gain. In contrast, the UK exports experienced a sharp decline of 34.8%, dropping from 18,755 t to 12,226 t. Saudi Arabia exports also reported a slight decrease of 4.9%, with imports falling from 14,512 to 13,799 t. Meanwhile, the UAE showed a marginal increase of 0.5%, rising from 9,861 to 9,908 t.

Price trends

Key imported scrap grades price: According to BigMint's analysis, in August, average prices of key grades like UAE tense (8-9%), CFR Mundra, stood at $1,730-1,760/t. UK zorba averaged $1,980-2,000/t, Additionally, other grades such as UAE taint tabor and extrusion were at $2,080/t and $2,300/t levels.

Domestic scrap price: In 2024 August, Delhi tense scrap prices were at INR 174,000/t- 176,000/t levels and in Chennai region it was around 177,000-178,000/t levels, as per BigMint's assessment.

Non-OEM ADC12: The non-OEM average prices of ADC12 in Delhi stood at INR 208,500/t in August.

Outlook

Aluminium scrap and semi-finished imports are expected to remain range-bound, as higher inventories in the domestic market have dampened demand for imported material.

23 Sep 2024, 18:10 IST

 

 

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