Indian silico manganese export offers down $20/t w-o-w in subdued global market

• Overseas competition weighs on exports offers
  
  
• High grade manganes ore prices rise slightly
  
  

Indian silico manganese export offers experienced a decline of $20/tonne (t) w-o-w, reflecting a persistent period of subdued demand in the global market. Additionally, ongoing container shortages at port facilities have further exacerbated challenges for exporters, contributing to the overall downward pressure on prices.

BigMint's assessment on 23 July, 2024, indicated a sustained downward trend in Indian silico manganese export prices. The SiMn 65-16 grade experienced a $20/t decline to $985/t FOB, while the SiMn 60-14 grade fell by $20/t to $845/t FOB (Haldia/Vizag). This further accentuated the softening of the Indian silico manganese market.

Confirmed deals

Global market updates

Low demand from importing countries hits exports: The Indian silico manganese export market continues to confront challenges.

• Steel production has decreased in key regions, particularly the Middle East (down 3% y-o-y to 4.6 million tonnes (mnt) in June 2024), which accounts for 20% of silico manganese exports from India.
  
  
• Japan's crude steel output was down 4% y-o-y to 7 mnt in June 2024. The country accounts for 10% of silico manganese procurement from India. This, in turn, has put downward pressure on export pricing.
  
  
• Additionally, the ongoing summer holidays in Europe have further dampened demand.
  
  
• Purchase enquiries from Bangladesh have been put on hold due ongoing protests within the country on quota issues. This has also impacted export deals conclusion from India.
  
  

Competitive offers from other origins: The downward trend on Indian silico manganese export prices was likely fuelled by pressure from alternative suppliers from Malaysia who the 60-14 grade at a significantly lower $830-840/t FOB.

Cost pressure on higher grades of manganese ore: Weakening demand, particularly from the alloy steel sector, has necessitated price reductions to liquidate stockpiles. Inquiries from Indian ports for silico manganese (65-16) at $950 -960 t FOB (Vizag/Haldia, India) indicate downward pressure on export prices, with some deals concluded at these levels fuelling buyer expectations of further price reductions.

However, the imported manganese ore market has exhibited contrasting price movements. High-grade ores (Mn 46% and 44%) have witnessed a modest increase of approximately $0.20/dmtu w-o-w (CNF India), while lower-grade ores have dipped slightly by $0.40/dmtu w-o-w. These divergent trends underscore the complexities within the raw material landscape and their potential implications for the silico manganese industry.

China's silico manganese market under pressure: China's silico manganese market is experiencing a downturn. Prices have fallen by RMB 335/t ($46/t) to RMB 6,760-6,950/t ($929-956/t). Weakening demand and cautious market sentiments are driving this decline. Additionally, futures contracts on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange have also fallen, reinforcing the bearish market outlook.

Outlook

Silico manganese exports may face short-term volatility due to weak demand and squeezed margins because of falling export prices and rising raw material costs. Exporters need to closely monitor market dynamics and adapt strategies to navigate this challenging environment.

A key silico manganese manufacturer informed BigMint of a potential production cutback in response to the widening gap between production costs and current market prices.