Indian mills roll-over coated flat steel list prices for Dec'24 sales

• Mills offer trade support for Nov'24
  
  
• Cheaper substrate product prices weigh on coated flats
  
  

Indian flat producers rolled over their list prices of coated products for December 2024 against the previous month-end levels. Also, mills extended price support of INR 800-1,250/t ($9-15/t) towards the end of November. Subsequent to the announcement, the estimated list price of galvanised plain (GP, 0.8mm 80gsm) coil stands at INR 59,000-59,250/t ($697-700/t) ex-Mumbai and that of pre-painted galvanised iron (PPGI, 0.5mm 90gsm) coil at INR 68,750-69,250/t ($812-818/t) ex-Mumbai for December 2024. The prices mentioned above exclude GST at 18%. (USD 1 = INR 84.672; INR 1 = USD 0.01181)

Monthly average trade-level coated finished-flat steel prices in November 2024 increased by INR 800/t ($9/t) compared to October following the increase of INR 1,000/t by mills in their list prices for November 2024. GP (0.8mm / CTL, 120gsm, IS277) prices averaged around INR 58,100/t ($688/t) exy-Mumbai and that of PPGI (0.5mm / CTL, 90gsm, IS14246) at INR 67,200/t ($796/t) exy-Mumbai. The prices mentioned above exclude GST at 18%. (USD 1 = INR 84.474 ; INR 1 = USD 0.01184)

Limited buying caps steep price increase: The monthly average prices of GP (0.8mm / CTL, 120gsm, IS277) had increased by up to INR 1,300/t ($15/t) m-o-m in the first fortnight of November 2024. However, in the latter half of the month, these prices dropped by around INR 500/t ($6/t) with buyers strategically maintaining lean inventory and were cautious towards bulk procurements.

Furthermore, the weekly assessed prices of GP (0.8mm / CTL, 120gsm, IS277) stood at INR 57,800/t ($683/t) exy-Mumbai (down, INR 100/t or $1/t, w-o-w), while PPGI (0.5mm / CTL, 90gsm, IS14246) stood at INR 66,800/t ($789/t) exy-Mumbai (down, INR 300/t or $4/t, w-o-w) as on 6 December 2024. The prices mentioned above exclude GST at 18%. (USD 1 = INR 84.672; INR 1 = USD 0.01181)

"Distributors and other sellers are chasing buyers to liquidate their inventories which have been piling up over last few months amid low volume inquiries and negotiations for lower prices," said a north-based participant. "The inventories are piling up with additional capacities and urgent requirement-based buying in domestic and overseas markets restricting the outflow of material from the distribution channel," he added.

Weak market performance indicators: India's monthly published Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) also reversed to 56.5 points in November 2024, after touching a high of 58.3 points in June 2024. This was down by 10 points from the previous month, as per the HSBC, S&P Global PMI data. This has been the lowest point this fiscal year, and indicates a lack of confidence amongst the end-buying sectors.

The monthly addition in installed capacity of solar power was about 1,357 megawatts (MW) in October 2024, which was around 1,330 MW a month back as per the Central Electricity Authority (CEA) data. The monthly addition in August 2024 (2,224 MW) was the highest this fiscal after which this has slowed down.

Meanwhile, there have been no updates about the monthly announcements of National Highway construction activities from the Ministry of Road Transport and Highways (MoRTH) after the last announcement for August 2024.

Outlook:

Trade-level prices of value-added coated flat steel products are likely to stay range-bound in the near term. Trade market participants opine that increasing supplies from domestic producers and the continued imports of cheaper substrate (HRC, CRC) and value-added alternatives from overseas are likely to keep prices away from a steeper increase.