Indian mills likely to raise rebar export offers further on domestic price rally

Indian rebar export prices witnessed a further rise this week. SteelMint's price assessment for the BF-route rebar (10-40mm, B500B) was assessed at $760/t CFR Hong Kong on actual weight (AW) basis. However, no export booking has been reported so far due to absence of firm bids.

Indian rebar export prices rose by around $7/t, w-o-w and sharply by $60/t on a monthly basis.

"Domestic realisations have steeply increased, hence, export offers for all products shall follow the suit," a credible source told SteelMint.

Factors behind rise in offers

• Hike in Indian domestic rebar offers on cost-push: Jindal Steel and Power Ltd (JSPL) announced a hike in list prices of rebar for early-Feb'22 sales by INR 1,500/t ($20/t), sources informed SteelMint. The revised price stands at INR 61,500-62,000/t ($823-830/t) delivered to Delhi basis, excluding GST at 18%. Increasing domestic offers further pushed up rebar export offers.
  
  
• Rising coal prices: Improved domestic demand along with cost push amid soaring coal prices resulted in the price hike, SteelMint understands. Prices for Australian premium low-volatile hard coking coal (HCC) stood at $445/t FOB Australia on 3 Feb'22.
  
  
• Global rebar export offers on uptrend: Turkey-based mills are learned to have lifted rebar export offers further by around $10/t, w-o-w amid higher costs, limited supply due to production cuts and natural gas supply constraints impacting steel production. Offers from Turkey-based mills were heard around $735-740/t FOB. A few Middle East mills are also testing market prices, channel checks indicated.
  
  

Outlook

A further hike of around $10-15/t in Indian rebar export offers is highly likely in the short-term as the price rally continues in the domestic as well as overseas markets.