Indian met coke prices remain unchanged w-o-w; trade remains muted

• Chinese coke plants propose 4^th round of price hike
  
  
• Import offers into India rise $15 w-o-w
  
  

India's domestic met coke prices remained largely stable on a weekly basis. According to BigMint's assessment, 25-90-mm blast furnace (BF) grade met coke prices were recorded at INR 33,300/t exw-Jajpur. Prices in Gandhidham also remained unchanged at INR 29,600/t. The market has been weak with limited transactions taking place and dull sentiments prevail.

Market overview-

Indonesia lifts met coke offers to India amid global demand recovery - Indonesian producers have raised BF grade met coke offers to $265-270 FOB, up by $15-20 w-o-w amid global demand surge and supply shortages from China. Offers Both Chinese and Indonesian coke producers are withholding new offers until after the holidays, anticipating further price increases, sources informed BigMint.

India's met coke imports up in H1FY'25- Indian met coke imports have increased significantly in H1FY'25 to 2.3 mnt as against 1.8 mnt in H1FY24. Imports have picked on better realisations. Imports from China were the highest at 0.8 mnt for the period under review against 0.4 mnt in H1FY'24, followed by Indonesia at 0.62 mnt as against 0.26 mnt in H1FY24. AM/NS India continues to be the largest importer for the H1FY25 period at 0.67 mnt.

The Ministry of Coal, Government of India, has supported the imposition of quantitative restrictions (QR) on the import of low-ash metallurgical coke into the country. The proposal, based on the recommendations of the Directorate General of Trade Remedies (DGTR), aims to safeguard the domestic coal industry and strengthen its self-reliance in the production of high-quality coal products.

However, despite the increase, imported prices are still lower in rupee parity compared to the domestic INR 33,300/t which makes the former more cost-effective.

Chinese coke plants propose fourth round of price hike: Chinese mills are anticipated to accept the fourth round of price hikes, with an increase of RMB 50-55/t. Over the past two weeks, metallurgical coke prices have risen in key production regions, and this upward trend persisted on the final working day before the National Day holiday which started on October 1. Further price hikes are expected from cokeries, driven by stronger steel product prices, rising domestic coking coal prices, and improving mill margins.

Coking coal prices pick up w-o-w:Australian coking coal prices have picked up by 8% w-o-w, reaching $204.75/t FOB Australia. Asian metallurgical coal prices surged as traders moved to secure November-loading cargoes, capitalizing on a perceived price gap following a rise in Chinese futures driven by government economic measures. However, buying interest remained cautious, with buyers taking time to assess the higher offers and not rushing into restocking.

Outlook

Indian met coke prices may continue to remain under pressure on low buying interest. Also inexpensive imports have put further pressure on prices. Steady price rise in the Chinese market and imposition of import restrictions may favour domestic prices.