Indian CRC export offers to Europe fall w-o-w amid recent deal
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Indian CRC export offers to Europe dropped by $10/t w-o-w to $645-650/t FOB east coast India ($695-700/t CFR Antwerp) as compared to $655-660/t FOB last week. Despite this drop, a small deal has been reported at similar price levels.
The domestic steel market remains cautious despite a typical seasonal decline in demand during the summer months and concerns about the lack of a post-holiday increase in activity or demand.
Furthermore, the European Commission's ongoing anti-dumping investigation could disrupt the market in the long term. Some market participants are concerned that in the long run, supply shortages may arise as consumers will avoid the implicated export countries.
European hot-rolled coil (HRC) prices continued to decline due to excess supply and weak demand. However, buyers were hesitant to purchase, anticipating further price reductions. Recent import restrictions, including a safeguarding review and an anti-dumping investigation, have offered limited relief to domestic markets. The primary factors influencing the price decline are oversupply and subdued demand from key end-user sectors.
Chinese CRC export offers remained stable w-o-w at $520/t FOB. Furthermore, the downtrend in the Chinese steel market has had a negative impact on global sentiments, further contributing to the downward pressure on HRC prices.
China's HRC offers on the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) declined by RMB 61/t ($9/t) d-o-d to RMB 3,195/t ($449/t) as compared to RMB 3,256/t ($458/t) a day ago. Moreover, on w-o-w basis the same sharply fell by RMB 136/t ($19/t) from RMB 3,331/t ($468/t) in the previous week.
Outlook
Keeping in mind, the seasonal decrease in demand and the absence of a post-holiday demand spike, Indian CRC export offers are expected to face downward pressure in the near future. Additionally, the ongoing European Commission's anti-dumping investigation poses a substantial threat to long-term market stability, potentially disrupting supply chains and causing shortages.