Indian CRC export offers drop w-o-w amid recent deals

Imported cold rolled coils (CRC) offers to the European Union (EU) from India fell by $10/t w-o-w to $735-745/t Antwerp ($685-700/t FOB east-coast India) as compared to $745/t a week ago. Moreover, a deal from major mill of around 5,000-6,000 tonnes (t) has been heard concluded at similar price levels.

European steel mills rarely offered commodity-grade CRC due to high production costs, particularly the energy-intensive annealing process. This has led them to shift production away from standard CRC. Instead, they are focusing on specialty grades and thicknesses of CRC.

Chinese CRC export offers declined by $15/t w-o-w to $580/t FOB against $595/t last week, following the decline in SHFE futures. Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) HRC futures decreased by RMB 64/t ($9/t) w-o-w to RMB 3,733/t ($514/t) as of RMB 3,797/t ($522/t) last week. However, on d-o-d basis the same remained range-bound.

The European Commission has extended existing steel safeguard measures for two years, until June 2026, in a move to protect the European Union's steel industry. The adjustments will take effect in July 2024, and the safeguards will expire in June 2026, the maximum allowed under international trade rules. The commission may revisit the safeguards before then if necessary.

Outlook

Indian CRC imports to the EU might see some increase due to reduced competition from China and the safeguard extension. However, this will likely be limited by lower European demand and continued focus on specialty CRC by European mills. The future trend will depend on how these factors play out in the coming months.