India: Trade-level HRC prices stay range-bound w-o-w

Trade-level hot-rolled coil (HRC) prices have remained range-bound in the key markets of Mumbai and Faridabad following the price increase by mills a week back.

SteelMint's benchmark assessment (weekly) of HRCs (IS2062, Gr E250, 2.5-8mm) stood at INR 59,500-60,500/t ($724-736/t) exy-Mumbai as on 29 March. Those of CRCs (IS513 Gr O, 0.9mm) stood at around INR 64,000-65,000/t exy-Mumbai. The prices mentioned above exclude GST at 18%. (INR 1 = USD 0.0121775 ; USD 1 = INR 82.1188)

Factors impacting trade-level prices:

1. Mills increase list prices for early April sales: It can be recalled that major private flat steel producers had increased their HRC and CRC list prices by INR 1,000/t ($12/t) with effect from 1 April 2023.

"Trade-level HRCs drew strength from the price stability maintained by sellers despite a slow-paced demand recovery," said a Western India-based distributor. However, a few were also quoting a little higher this week as mills increased their list prices for April sales, he added.

2. Decent export volumes, but range-bound export offers: Indian steel producers have had good exposure to exports, especially in the European markets. Indian HRC (S275) export offers increased to $830-840/t CFR Antwerp by mid-March and have been hovering around the same levels till the last assessment on 4 April 2023.

However, HRC (SAE1006) export offers to the UAE dropped marginally to $735-745/t CFR from the previous week's $740-750/t CFR amid availability of cheaper alternatives and lacklustre market activity because of the month of Ramadan. SteelMint's HRC (SAE1006) export index was assessed at around $705/t FOB east coast this week.

3. Steel consumption improves in March: Steel consumption, which had dropped in February 2023 to 10.12 mnt, again improved in March. India's apparent steel usage (ASU) increased by 8.6% m-o-m to 10.985 mnt in March 2023, as per the provisional data received from the Joint Plant Committee (JPC).

This is another factor that pushed mills to increase their prices for April sales and lend support to the trade-level prices.