India: Trade-level HRC prices remain stable w-o-w amid festive period

• Market reject mills' Jan list price hike
  
  
• Weak demand pressures trade activity

  
  
  

India's prices of steel hot-rolled coils (HRCs) and cold-rolled coils (CRCs) remained steady w-o-w at INR 46,500-48,600/tonne (t) ($642-679/t) and INR 53,500-57,000/t ($703-762/t), respectively, across all markets. While mills had revised list prices upward, the market resisted the hike due to subdued demand. The festive period, including Makar Sankranti, Lohri, and Pongal, also contributed to the limited demand observed in the market.

BigMint's benchmark assessments (bi-weekly) for HRCs (IS2062, Gr E250, 2.5-8 mm/CTL) fell by INR 100/t ($5/t) w-o-w to INR 46,500/t ($549/t) on 14 January 2025. However, CRC (IS513, Gr O, 0.9 mm/CTL) prices increased marginally by INR 100/t w-o-w to INR 53,500/t ($628/t). These prices are quoted ex-Mumbai for the distributor-to-dealer segment and exclude 18% GST.

Market updates

Market rejects mills' list price hike: The recent price increases implemented by steel mills for January 2025 were not absorbed by the market, with actual tags remaining below mills' quotes. Limited demand exerted pressure on market participants and prompted sellers to make greater efforts to drive sales. Even the festive period, characterised by market closures for celebrations, resulted in sluggish activity.

"All the buzz around safeguard duties has died down, and now, all market movements are expected to hinge on demand. Presently, limited demand has prevented the absorption of higher prices," said a market participant.

Import, export trends: Imports of bulk HRCs and plates stood at 189,176 t till 16 January 2025, as per bulk vessel line-up data maintained with BigMint. It is expected that an additional 120,772 t will be imported by the month-end.

India's HRC export offers to Europe and the Middle East remained stable w-o-w but faced challenges competing with aggressive pricing from Chinese suppliers. In contrast, Chinese HRC export offers declined across major markets, including the Middle East and Vietnam, due to increasing pricing pressures and weakening demand.

Additionally, India's HRC exports to Europe continued to exhibit sluggish activity. Indian mills are not actively offering HRCs to the EU market, with the most recent indicative offers for S275, 3 mm material at approximately $590-595/t CFR Antwerp ($540-545/t FOB east coast India).

Outlook

The market is currently characterised by subdued demand. As the impact of the safeguard duty investigation diminishes, market activity is expected to remain within a narrow trading range.