India: Trade level HRC prices remain stable amid limited trade

• Domestic trade-level HRC prices stable w-o-w
  
  
• Indian HRC export prices dip, but volumes rise
  
  

India's hot-rolled (HR) and cold-rolled (CR) coil prices held steady across most markets this week. However, prices in Hyderabad fell by INR 900/tonne ($11/t) to a new range of INR 52,500-54,000/t ($632-650/t), while Ahmedabad prices dropped by INR 700/t ($8/t) to a new low of INR 52,500-53,500/t ($632-644/t). Limited trading activity persisted as market participants awaited clarity on price supports from steel mills in the run-up to Holi and the financial year end.

BigMint's benchmark assessment (bi-weekly) for HRC (IS2062, Gr E250, 2.5-8mm) prices inched down by INR 200/t ($2/t) to INR 52,600/t ($633/t) on 19 March 2024, compared to the previous week. Also, CRC (IS513, Gr O, 0.9mm) prices were down by INR 200/t ($2/t) to INR 61,100/t ($736/t) during the same period. These prices are quoted ex-Mumbai, excluding 18% GST, and are for cut-to-length (CTL) deliveries. (IINR 1 = USD 0.0120431 ; USD 1 = INR 83.0351)

Concurrently, the assessed prices for hot-rolled plates (IS2062, Gr E250, 20-40mm) on a weekly basis fell by INR 500/t ($6/t) , averaging INR 60,000/t ($723/t) within the broader range of INR 57,000-61,500/t ($686-741/t). These prices are quoted ex-Mumbai, excluding 18% GST.

Market updates

1. Domestic trade-level prices remained stable: The trade market continues to see sluggish trading activity, with growing anxiety, particularly in the south, as the financial year-end nears. Buyers are citing an oversupply of material and are bidding prices below those quoted by mills.

"Lacklustre market activities are indeed exerting downward pressure on prices while inventory pressures are mounting across all levels with the fast approaching financial year-end," observed a reliable industry source. The profit margins are getting thinned out and the price levels are mostly likely to stay flattened for the rest of the month, hinted a few other distributor sources. Concerns also arise regarding liquidity issues, with some expressing unease over mills remaining silent on pricing while simultaneously pushing for sales.

2. Indian HRC export prices drop: BigMint's India HRC (SAE 1006) export index (for the Middle East and Vietnam) dropped by $15/t to $575 FOB east coast India against $590/t FOB last week. The index has fallen to a seven-month low as these levels were last seen in end-August 2023.

Imported hot-rolled coil (HRC) offers to Vietnam and the Middle East have dropped due to weakening demand and price reductions from Chinese and Indian suppliers. Indian HRC indicative offers have also fallen to $595/t CFR in Ho Chi Minh City (HCMC) and $610/t CFR for the Middle East.

Indian HRC export prices to Europe have declined to $640-650/t CFR Antwerp due to low demand, with buyers waiting for prices to drop further to EUR 580-590/t CFR.

3. Exports increase: India's exports of bulk HRCs and plates were at 377,676 tonnes till 18 March 2024, according to the vessel line-up data tracked by BigMint. Total export volumes reached 642,422 t in February 2024 against 458,120 t in January 2024.

India's imports of bulk hot-rolled coil (HRC) and plates were at 139,161 t till 18 March 2024. Total import volumes reached 465,276 t, in February 2024 against a higher 660,344 t in January 2024.